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  • Back With A Vengeance

    After about a month offline, NBA Sim is back and (hopefully) better than ever!

    The cause of the downtime was switching to a new hosting plan. The old host was inconsistent – sometimes the site would be down for days at a time with no rhyme or reason. I asked several times why this was happening but never got a satisfactory answer. So I’ve moved over to the same host that currently serves my personal site and so far, so good!

    A lot has happened in the NBA while I was gone so I’ve got a lot of catching up to do. First up I’ll hit the end of the year awards. However, I’d like to preface these next couple of posts by saying I am undergoing a MASSIVE database refresh. I’ll talk about that in a future blog, but going forward know that there are going to be some huge shakeups.

    Monday, May 17th, 2010 at 10:55
  • Dropping the Ball …

    As you can tell I haven’t been totally punctual with the Top 10 posts. In fact, I’ve downright missed the past 2 weeks. I was gearing up to get this week’s post ready but just realized I don’t have the time.

    I’m in total crunch mode at work and with extracurricular activities sapping most of my after-work hours (while guests take chunks out of my weekend), I am just totally overwhelmed at the moment. I’ll get back into the swing of things here … and even have some great, new ideas for this site. It’s going to be awesome, just have some patience!

    Tuesday, April 6th, 2010 at 18:04
  • 2010 NBA Top 10 Week 21: Dwyane Wade is Elite and is Willing to Prove It

    D-Wade wonders how he can be ranked behind a goofy, 8th grade-looking motherfuckerSorry about the disappearence of Week 20 (and the shortening of Week 19, for that matter)! I’ve suddenly got sucked up into some crazy day-job nuttiness – it’s seriously the crunch time from hell. I will survive, however, and so will NBA-Sim, so take a deep breath.

    The Big Three (and, no, I don’t mean those fossils in Boston) are finally making their presence known around the league. Ok, sure, Chris Paul and LeBron are the elite in this sport, but Wade is finally coming on strong at the end of the season. Will it be enough to knock out Mr. Underrated, David Lee?

    For the past week-and-a-half, Wade has been stellar, with a line of 27.6 PPG / 5.0 RPG / 6.0 APG while shooting 45% from the floor and 73% from the line (ok so he’s been stellar but not all that efficient). He’s also managed to lead his lowly Heat to a 3-2 record in that span including a critical victory against the Bobcats who are biting at his 6th seed heels.

    Biggest Jump: Dwyane Wade, Gerald Wallace (2)
    Biggest Fall: Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony (1)
    Hello: Carlos Boozer
    Goodbye: Steve Nash
    Ineligible: Chris Paul

    NBA Top 10 (by APP+)
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+

    1

    1 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers F 69 ↑ 37.95 ↑ 28.70
    - 2 Chris Paul (Injured) (Ineligible) New Orleans Hornets G 38 ↑ 32.11 ↑ 22.64

    2

    2 David Lee New York Knicks F 69 ↑ 28.36 ↑ 19.11

    3

    5 Dwyane Wade Miami Heat G 66 ↑ 28.48 ↑ 19.01
    4 3 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder G-F 68 ↑ 28.55 ↑ 18.57
    5 4 Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors F-C 61 ↑ 28.66 ↓ 18.02
    6 6 Dwight Howard Orlando Magic C-F 70 ↑ 27.69 ↑ 17.94
    7 8 Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 53 ↑ 26.67 ↑ 17.42
    8 7 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 68 ↑ 26.54 ↑ 17.29
    9 11 Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 64 ↑ 25.75 ↑ 16.50
    10 9 Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies F 69 ↑ 25.42 ↑ 16.17

     

    Just Outside
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+
    11 10 Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 64 ↑ 25.39 ↑ 15.92
    12 12 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs F-C 65 ↑ 26.27 ↑ 15.63
    13 14 Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers G-F 65 ↑ 25.58 ↑ 15.60
    14 13 Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets F 57 ↑ 24.85 ↑ 15.60
    15 - Carlos Boozer Utah Jazz F-C 57 26.11 15.47

     

    Positional Average APP (from 1980-Present)
    Position G G-F F-G F F-C C-F C
    Avg. APP ↑ 9.47 ↑ 9.98 ↑ 10.63 ↑ 9.25 ↑ 10.64 ↑ 9.75 ↑ 8.58
    # of Players ↑ 3946 1040 688 ↑ 3029 1370 706 1425

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.
    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.

    Players are considered ineligible if they fail to play in 60% of their team’s games.

    APP for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 9.79
    APP+ for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 0.40
    Stats through 3/21/2010

    Wednesday, March 24th, 2010 at 16:19
  • 2010 NBA Top 10 Week 19.5: Grizzly Man

    The criminally underrated David LeeRemember when Zach Randolph was the new incarnation of Shareef Abdur-Rahim – the best player on bad teams? Well, the impossible has occurred: one of the bottom 3 franchises in the league merged with the “best-on-a-bad” Randolph and formed … a surprisingly decent 2010 Memphis Grizzlies squad. What the?

    I don’t claim to understand it, either, so I’ll just hit the facts. 20.8 PPG / 10.6 RPG / 0.2 APG, shooting 49.3% from the floor and 85.7% from the free throw line. Ok, so he’s a black hole, but Z-Bo (where does the “Bo” in that nickname come from, anyway?) is still a 20-10 beast and lead his Grizzlies to 4-1 in the 5 games he’s played this month.

    Biggest Jump: Zach Randolph, Deron Williams (3)
    Biggest Fall: Tim Duncan (2)
    Hello: Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash
    Goodbye: Rajon Rondo, Carlos Boozer
    Ineligible: Chris Paul

    NBA Top 10 (by APP+)
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+

    1

    1 LeBron James (Injured) Cleveland Cavaliers F 63 ↓ 34.70 ↓ 25.49
    - 2 Chris Paul (Injured) (Ineligible) New Orleans Hornets G 38 ↑ 29.80 ↓ 20.36

    2

    5 David Lee New York Knicks F 64 ↓ 26.34 ↓ 17.13

    3

    4 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder G-F 63 ↓ 26.66 ↓ 16.70
    4 3 Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors F-C 56 ↓ 27.06 ↓ 16.43
    5 6 Dwyane Wade Miami Heat G 61 ↓ 25.71 ↓ 16.27
    6 7 Dwight Howard Orlando Magic C-F 65 ↓ 25.78 ↓ 16.04
    7 8 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 65 ↓ 24.35 ↓ 15.14
    8 9 Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 48 ↓ 24.16 ↓ 14.95
    9 12 Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies F 64 ↓ 23.70 ↓ 14.49
    10 13 Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 58 ↓ 23.81 ↓ 14.37

     

    Just Outside
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+
    11 11 Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 61 ↓ 23.33 ↓ 14.12
    12 10 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs F-C 59 ↓ 24.73 ↓ 14.10
    13 - Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets F 51 23.27 14.06
    14 - Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers G-F 60 23.95 13.99
    15 - Steve Nash Phoenix Suns G 64 23.34 13.90

     

    Positional Average APP (from 1980-Present)
    Position G G-F F-G F F-C C-F C
    Avg. APP ↓ 9.44 ↓ 9.96 10.62 ↓ 9.21 ↓ 10.63 ↓ 9.74 ↓ 8.56
    # of Players 3943 1040 688 3027 1370 706 1425

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.
    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.

    Players are considered ineligible if they fail to play in 60% of their team’s games.

    APP for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 9.02
    APP+ for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 0.00
    Stats through 3/11/2010

    Friday, March 12th, 2010 at 16:09
  • 2010 NBA Top 10 Week 18: David Lee Is Having A Better Season Than Your Favorite Player

    The criminally underrated David LeeWho do you like? Dwyane Wade? Dwight Howard? Tim Duncan? Carmelo Anthony? KOBE BRYANT?

    Guess what, David Lee is having a better 2010 season than any of those also-rans!

    Ok, so the Knicks aren’t going to be mistaken for a championship contending – or even playoff bound – team anytime soon, but the stats don’t lie: Lee is performing at a higher level than these marquee players this year. I’ve still yet to tie performance to wins (unlike Berri’s Win Shares, for example) and I’m not even sure if it’s a direct correlation, anyway.This is a team sport, afterall, so a ball hog may end up hurting his team even if he’s very good.

    Still, here was the line from Lee’s week: 21.5 PPG / 12.8 RPG / 3.5 APG while shooting 55% from the floor and and 73% from the free throw line. Surely nothing to sneeze at! Yes, the Knicks went 1-3 last week, but, again, there’s still no direct correlation between performance and wins here at NBA Sim.

    Yet.

    Biggest Jump: Dirk Nowitzki (2)
    Biggest Fall: Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan (1)
    Hello: Rajon Rondo, Carlos Boozer
    Goodbye: Carmelo Anthony, Al Horford
    Ineligible: N/A

    NBA Top 10 (by APP+)
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+

    1

    1 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers F 60 ↑ 37.86 ↑ 28.62

    2

    2 Chris Paul (Injured) New Orleans Hornets G 38 ↑ 32.22 ↓ 22.75

    3

    3 Chris Bosh (Injured) Toronto Raptors F-C 53 ↑ 29.86 ↑ 19.22
    4 4 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder G-F 58 ↑ 28.76 ↓ 18.78
    5 5 David Lee New York Knicks F 58 ↑ 27.86 ↑ 18.62
    6 6 Dwyane Wade Miami Heat G 56 ↓ 27.78 ↓ 18.31
    7 7 Dwight Howard Orlando Magic C-F 60 ↑ 27.90 ↑ 18.15
    8 10 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 59 ↑ 26.64 ↓ 17.39
    9 8 Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 43 ↓ 26.47 ↓ 17.23
    10 9 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs F-C 54 ↑ 27.74 ↑ 17.10

     

    Just Outside
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+
    11 11 Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 55 ↑ 26.29 ↑ 17.05
    12 13 Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies F 59 ↑ 25.62 ↑ 16.38
    13 14 Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 53 ↑ 25.29 ↑ 15.82
    14 - Rajon Rondo Boston Celtics G 56 25.27 15.80
    15 - Carlos Boozer Utah Jazz F-C 56 26.32 15.68

     

    Positional Average APP (from 1980-Present)
    Position G G-F F-G F F-C C-F C
    Avg. APP 9.47 9.98 10.62 9.24 10.64 9.75 ↑ 8.58
    # of Players 3943 1040 688 ↑ 3027 1370 706 1425

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.
    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.

    Players are considered ineligible if they fail to play in 60% of their team’s games.

    APP for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 9.71
    APP+ for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 0.32
    Stats through 2/28/2010

    Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 at 17:19
  • 2010 NBA Top 10 Week 17: Battle of the Supermen

    Battle of the SupermenI’m still sticking with the manual calculations to determine this list so these posts are taking me a lot longer. However, I’m confident of their results so here’s the truth for this week:

    Not a lot of movement this week with Dwight Howards 2-spot hop being the most notable. Superman led his Orlando Magic to a 2-1 week putting up a crazy line: 28.0 PPG / 16.3 RPG / 2.0 APG, shooting 58% from the floor and 72% from the line (this coming from a career 57% free throw shooter)! Perhaps the most impressive stat is the win again Eastern Conference rivals, Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday.

    Biggest Jump: Dwight Howard (2)
    Biggest Fall: Dwyane Wade (1)
    Hello: Al Horford
    Goodbye: Steve Nash
    Ineligible: N/A

    NBA Top 10 (by APP+)
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+

    1

    1 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers F 57 ↑ 37.54 ↑ 28.30

    2

    2 Chris Paul (Injured) New Orleans Hornets G 38 ↓ 32.18 ↓ 22.71

    3

    3 Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors F-C 53 ↑ 29.82 ↑ 19.18
    4 4 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder G-F 54 ↓ 28.62 ↓ 18.64
    5 6 David Lee New York Knicks F 54 ↑ 27.78 ↑ 18.54
    6 5 Dwyane Wade (Injured) Miami Heat G 55 ↓ 27.96 ↓ 18.49
    7 9 Dwight Howard Orlando Magic C-F 57 ↑ 27.86 ↑ 18.11
    8 7 Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 39 ↓ 26.70 ↓ 17.46
    9 8 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs F-C 51 ↓ 27.65 ↓ 17.01
    10 10 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 55 ↓ 26.00 ↓ 16.76

     

    Just Outside
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+
    11 11 Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 52 ↓ 25.91 ↓ 16.67
    12 13 Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets F 43 25.20 ↑ 15.96
    13 14 Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies F 55 ↓ 24.98 ↓ 15.74
    14 15 Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 50 ↓ 25.04 ↓ 15.57
    15 - Al Horford Atlanta Hawks C 54 24.10 15.53

     

    Positional Average APP (from 1980-Present)
    Position G G-F F-G F F-C C-F C
    Avg. APP 9.47 ↑ 9.98 ↓ 10.62 ↓ 9.24 10.64 9.75 8.57
    # of Players ↑ 3943 1040 ↑ 688 ↑ 3026 1370 706 1425

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.
    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.

    Players are considered ineligible if they fail to play in 60% of their team’s games.

    APP for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 8.72
    APP+ for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: -0.65
    Stats through 2/21/2010

    Thursday, February 25th, 2010 at 18:03
  • 2010 NBA Top 10 Week 16: Post-All-Star Reboot

    Reboot: Good for LeBronI’m going to keep this short: for some reason, my automatic process that I set up to do all of my Top 10 calculations got gummed up and started pumping out odd results. So, I’ve rebooted and did this one by hand to make sure it was correct. And, what do you know? LeBron jumps back to the top spot … yeah, that sounds about right.

    Biggest Jump: N/A
    Biggest Fall: N/A
    Hello: N/A
    Goodbye: N/A
    Ineligible: N/A

    NBA Top 10 (by APP+)
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+

    1

    - LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers F 54 37.25 28.00

    2

    - Chris Paul (Injured) New Orleans Hornets G 38 32.32 22.85

    3

    - Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors F-C 52 29.59 18.95
    4 - Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder G-F 51 28.77 18.80
    5 - Dwyane Wade (Injured) Miami Heat G 53 28.20 18.73
    6 - David Lee New York Knicks F 51 27.47 18.22
    7 - Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 37 27.07 17.82
    8 - Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs F-C 48 27.91 17.27
    9 - Dwight Howard Orlando Magic C-F 54 26.90 17.15
    10 - Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 51 26.02 16.77

     

    Just Outside
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+
    11 - Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 49 26.00 16.75
    12 - Steve Nash Phoenix Suns G 53 25.46 15.99
    13 - Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets F 40 25.20 15.95
    14 - Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies F 51 25.14 15.89
    15 - Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 46 25.25 15.78

     

    Positional Average APP (from 1980-Present)
    Position G G-F F-G F F-C C-F C
    Avg. APP 9.47 9.97 10.63 9.25 10.64 9.75 8.57
    # of Players 3942 1040 687 3024 1370 706 1425

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.
    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.

    Players are considered ineligible if they fail to play in 60% of their team’s games.

    APP for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 9.32
    APP+ for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 0.00
    Stats through 2/14/2010

    Monday, February 22nd, 2010 at 13:35
  • Dream Teams

    I found a great debate article on ESPN dealing with putting together the best team of all time.

    Early this morning, a debate broke out among the SportsCenter staff in the show pod. The question was, “If you had to choose 5 players to start on an all-time NBA team, who would it be?” After about 15 minutes, we decided to do a draft. Four teams, and each picked a starting 5. The Team names are based on the order of the draft (Team A had the 1st pick, but in this “snake-style draft”, team A did not select again until pick number 8). For the record, Michel Jordan did NOT go with the first pick – here’s how the 1st round went: 1) Chamberlain, 2) Jordan, 3) Magic, 4) LeBron.

    Well, this is right up my alley, so I had to put my own 2 cents into the argument. I went with each player’s highest APP+ value and then found which team had the highest average. Of course, I’d love to do a 10k sim (simulate the games 10,000 times), but I don’t have a system to do that … yet! Here’s the breakdown:

    Dream Team Pos Player Best Year/Team APP+
    Team A C Wilt Chamberlain (1) 1963 SFW 34.69
    PF Tim Duncan 2002 SAS 29.19
    SF Oscar Robertson 1964 CIN 27.97
    SG Jerry West 1970 LAL 19.41
    PG John Stockton 1991 UTA 21.86
    Average APP+ 26.62

    Chamberlain and Duncan would create perhaps the most fearsome offensive-defensive low post punch, but Oscar Robertson as a small forward? I wonder how effective he would be off the ball. Team A would lose size with Jerry West at the shooting guard position but Chamberlain’s production seems to more than make up for everyone else’s lapses.

    Dream Team Pos Player Best Year/Team APP+
    Team B C Bill Russell 1965 BOS 24.47
    PF Charles Barkley 1987 PHI 25.41
    SF Elgin Baylor 1961 LAL 25.57
    SG Michael Jordan (2) 1989 CHI 29.59
    PG Pete Maravich 1977 NOJ 13.57
    Average APP+ 23.72

    Obviously this team won’t be lacking in terms of scoring with Barkley, Baylor, Maravich and especially Jordan. Also, they’re anchored by the winningest baller in the history of the sport. However, I’m concerned about ESPN’s selection of Pistol Pete. Sure, he was an electrifying player in both the NBA and college as well as a deeply interesting man, but he’s one of the league’s most famously overrated guys. As a result, Team B is dragged down a bit in terms of average APP+.

    Dream Team Pos Player Best Year/Team APP+
    Team C C Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1972 MIN 29.81
    PF Hakeem Olajuwon 1993 HOU 26.71
    SF Larry Bird 1987 BOS 26.79
    SG Julius Erving 1975 NYA 20.46
    PG Magic Johnson (3) 1989 LAL 26.19
    Average APP+ 25.99

    This is my favorite team. How can you beat these five in their prime? Still, I’m not so sure how Hakeem at the four would work. I would probably switch Kareem with him as Kareem was more of the finesse player while Hakeem was the better defender. Julius would be a big shooting guard, but at this early a stage in his career, he’s probably quick enough to keep up with even Jordan. With Hakeem and Kareem in the low post, Julius slashing, Bird shotting and Magic dishing, this is a solid, solid team.

    Dream Team Pos Player Best Year/Team APP+
    Team D C Shaquille O’Neal 2000 LAL 28.06
    PF Kevin Garnett 2004 MIN 29.03
    SF LeBron James (4) 2009 CLE 28.12
    SG Kobe Bryant 2003 LAL 21.21
    PG Isiah Thomas 1985 DET 19.41
    Average APP+ 25.17

    Though comprised of unquestionably great players, I have the msot reservations about this team playing together. Look at who is playing each position … and then realize there’s only one ball to share between them!

    Anyway, the APP+ has spoken and predicts Team A to be the winner. However, I’d still love to 10k sim this because I get the feeling Team C might edge everyone out.

    Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010 at 14:41
  • 2010 NBA Top 10 Week 14: A War of Attrition

    Riding the pineIs it All-Star break, yet, because so many teams could sure use the time off. Three of the Top 5 players are recuperating on the bench and for many of the other top players, they wish they had that excuse. So many big names (Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James) are seeing their performance head south.

    Marc Gasol cracks into the Top 10 for the first time this week, bringing the total amount of Grizzlies in the top 15 to a staggering 2! He put up a Gasolian line of 19.3 PPG / 10.5 RPG / 3.8 APG, shooting 58% from the floor and 81% from the line. Oh, and this team that was predicted to be in the basement of the Western Conference went 2-2 and edged closer towards that 8th seed. Heal up, Melo! You don’t want to see this Grizzly man in the playoffs.

    Biggest Jump: Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Brook Lopez (6)
    Biggest Fall: Tim Duncan, Dwyane Wade (6)
    Hello: Marc Gasol
    Goodbye: Dwight Howard
    Ineligible: Kevin Love

    NBA Top 10 (by APP+)
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+

    1

    1 Chris Paul (Injured) New Orleans Hornets G 38 ↓ 28.63 ↓ 19.71

    2

    2 Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 31 ↑ 26.73 ↑ 18.04

    3

    5 Carmelo Anthony (Injured) Denver Nuggets F 38 ↑ 25.67 ↑ 16.98
    4 9 Brandon Roy (Injured) Pottland Trail Blazers G 40 ↓ 25.13 ↓ 16.21
    5 11 Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 41 ↑ 25.07 ↑ 16.15
    6 4 Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 45 ↓ 24.42 ↓ 15.73
    7 13 Rajon Rondo Boston Celtics G 44 ↑ 24.63 ↑ 15.71
    8 14 Brook Lopez New Jersey Nets C 46 ↓ 23.55 ↓ 15.42
    9 3 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs F-C 43 ↓ 25.47 ↓ 15.20
    10 - Marc Gasol Memphis Grizzlies C 46 23.30 15.17

     

    Just Outside
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+
    11 6 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 46 ↓ 23.68 ↓ 14.99
    12 8 Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies F 46 ↑ 23.30 ↑ 14.61
    13 7 Dwyane Wade Miami Heat G 47 ↓ 23.46 ↓ 14.54
    14 10 David Lee New York Knicks F 47 ↓ 22.63 ↓ 13.94
    - - Kevin Love (Ineligible) Minnesota Timberwolves F 29 22.61 13.92
    15 12 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers F 49 ↓ 22.40 ↓ 13.71

     

    Positional Average APP (from 1980-Present)
    Position G G-F F-G F F-C C-F C
    Avg. APP ↓ 8.92 9.74 10.09 ↓ 8.69 10.27 9.25 ↑ 8.13
    # of Players ↑ 4827 1230 803 3629 1623 843 1671

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.
    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.

    Players are considered ineligible if they fail to play in 60% of their team’s games.

    APP for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: ↓ 9.25
    APP+ for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: ↓ 0.39
    Stats through 2/1/2010

    Monday, February 1st, 2010 at 14:55
  • All-Star Selections: Wrong Again!

    There’s nothing like the naming of the NBA All-Stars to get me all good and pissed off. Well, nothing except for the Grammy winners each year, but still, this annual debacle is a close second. But I digress …

    Anyway, as usual, here’s the NBA Sim rebutal to the less-than-stellar voter/coaches selections this year. My selections are based on APP+ which is APP above positional average APP. In case that didn’t make any sense, let’s say Chris Paul and LeBron James have the same APP. APP+ would show Chris Paul as actually having the better season since the point guard average APP is lower than a small forward’s average APP. Or, in a quick visual demonstration (with completely made-up data):

    Player APP Pos. Pos. Avg. APP APP+
    Chris Paul 22.50 G 8.54 13.96
    LeBron James 22.50 F 9.22 13.28

    The following data use 2010 NBA stats through 1/18/2010. Thanks, as usual, Basketball-Reference.com!

    Eastern Conference All-Stars
    Voter/Coach Selections   Who Should Be Playing
      Player Team(s) APP+ Pos. Player Team(s) APP+ Diff.
    Start LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers 17.48 F LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers 17.48 0.00
    Kevin Garnett Boston Celtics 12.32 F David Lee New York Knicks 17.29 ↓ 4.97
    Dwyane Wade Miami Heat 19.21 G Dwyane Wade Miami Heat 19.21 0.00
    Allen Iverson Memphis GrizzliesPhiladelphia 76ers 6.08 G Rajon Rondo Boston Celtics 15.33 ↓ 9.25
    Dwight Howard Orlando Magic 16.63 C Dwight Howard Orlando Magic 16.63 0.00
    Starters Difference ↓ 14.22
    Bench Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats 17.12 F Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats 17.12 0.00
    Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors 15.98 F Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors 15.98 0.00
    Rajon Rondo Boston Celtics 15.33 G Joe Johnson Atlanta Hawks 12.46 ↑ 2.87
    Joe Johnson Atlanta Hawks 12.46 G Derrick Rose Chicago Bulls 9.87 ↓ 0.85
    Al Horford Atlanta Hawks 14.56 C Brook Lopez New Jersey Nets 15.41 ↓ 0.85
    Wild
    Card
    Paul Pierce Boston Celtics 11.83 WC Antawn Jamison Washington Wizards 14.64 ↓ 2.81
    Derrick Rose Chicago Bulls 9.87 WC Al Horford Atlanta Hawks 14.56 ↓ 4.69
    Reserves Difference ↑ 4.61
    Total Difference ↓ 17.11

    Whew … something really smells and it’s coming from the East! Let’s take a look at the starters, first. Remember, these positions were voted on by the fans and had to come from this crop of players. When making my picks (according to APP+), I went by this player pool, as well.

    LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Dwight Howard are easy locks. All three are the best at their respective positions and should be starting in this game for the East. However, Kevin Garnett and Allen Iverson seem to have been chosen on sentimental value as they are just not performing at All-Star level this year. You’ll notice neither one makes my list! Rajon Rondo and David Lee should be their replacements. Rondo is a fairly obvious choice but, yes, I said David Lee!

    Though usually playing “center” in Mike D’Antoni’s mish-mash, fastbreaking, 3-point shooting Knicks, he’s listed as a forward on the All-Star ballot. Yes, the Knicks playing at the 6th fastest pace in the game will inflate Lee’s stats a bit, but APP accounts for this and he still is leading Chris Bosh by a nose in performance. Remember, these selections are based off of stats from right around the time All-Star voting ended because since then, Bosh has made his move and is now doing better than Lee.

    Anyway, the amount of performance that the Eastern All-Stars are losing because of fan selection is about what Andre Iguodala brings to the court each night. That is an incredible amount! Thanks, casual NBA fans!

    Ok, onto the reserves who are selected by the coaches. Where voters overvalue name recognition and scoring, coaches respond mainly to team wins which irks me almost as much. All-Star status is a recognition for individual acheivement and yet coaches base many of their selections on a stat dependent upon multiple people! And – when you think about it – team wins are also a stat that is attributed to coaching! Perhaps this really is a way to pat each other on the back for a job well done rather than picking out the best players. Who knows?

    It’s unanimous: both the coaches and I feel Chris Bosh and Gerald Wallace are the 3rd and 4th best Eastern Conference forwards (at the All-Star break). We also agree on Rajon Rondo and Joe Johnson’s inclusion, however their selection of Rajon has been pushed down because of the Iverson fiasco. Since my selections don’t suffer from the same mistake, I get to bring in another deserving guard: Gilbert Arenas with an APP+ of 11.96. Oops. Actually, it sounds like Gilbert won’t be able to attend the party in Dallas, so I’ll go with the next best guard: Derrick Rose.

    While I agree Al Horford deserves to be an All-Star, he’s certainly not the second best center in the conference – that would be Brook Lopez of the lowly New Jersey Nets. Finally, the coaches feel a burning desire to let Paul Pierce show up to another of these games even though Antawn Jamison deserves it so much more.

    As usual, the coaches do a much better job at picking All-Stars than voters (though that’s not saying much), as the amount of performance they’re leaving out is only 4.61 APP+ – or about what Anthony Randolph has done this year. Remeber, this production would be ADDED to the reserve group’s performance, not substituted for any reserve, so it’s still like leaving free money on the table.

    Alright, let’s head to warmer (and hopefully better selected All-Stars) parts of the NBA …

    Western Conference All-Stars
    Voter/Coach Selections   Who Should Be Playing
      Player Team(s) APP+ Pos. Player Team(s) APP+ Diff.
    Start Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs 18.53 F Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs 18.53 0.00
    Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets 17.23 F Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks 18.51 ↓ 1.28
    Steve Nash Phoenix Suns 15.82 G Chris Paul New Orleans Hornets 22.77 ↓ 6.95
    Brandon Roy Portland Trail Blazers 16.47 ↓ 0.67
    Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers 15.80 G Deron Williams Utah Jazz 16.02 ↑ 6.75
    Amare Stoudemire Phoenix Suns 11.01 C Marc Gasol Memphis Grizzlies 14.47 ↓ 3.46
    Starters Difference ↓ 12.36
    Bench Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks 18.51 F Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets 17.23 ↑ 1.28
    Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder 16.71 F Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder 16.71 0.00
    Chris Paul New Orleans Hornets 22.77 G Steve Nash Phoenix Suns 15.82 ↑ 0.65
    Brandon Roy Portland Trail Blazers 16.47 G Jason Kidd* Dallas Mavericks 13.11 ↑ 0.65
    Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers 18.51 C Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers 18.51 0.00
    Wild
    Card
    Deron Williams Utah Jazz 16.02 WC Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies 16.37 ↓ 0.35
    Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies 16.37 WC Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers 15.80 ↑ 0.57
    Reserves Difference ↑ 8.68
    Total Difference ↓ 3.46

    I don’t know what is more surprising to me: the fact that the voters and I only agree on one player who should be starting for the Western Conference All-Stars, or the fact that the person we agree upon is 33-year old Tim Duncan! Listen, I’m fairly confident that the gentleman is the best power forward the sport has seen and I’m willing to show my math (someday), but who would guess he’s still outperforming an entire conference at his ripe old age?

    Carmelo Anthony. Kobe Bryant. Blah, blah, blah. Yes, fans, I realize both guys put up a lot of points, are super recognizable, and Kobe is the leader of the defending champions, but Dirk Nowitzki and Brandon Roy are outperforming them this season. Steve Nash is still impressive even though he’s older than everyone (even Duncan) but it is a crime that Chris Paul’s dominance at the point guard position is not being rewarded by the NBA audience. And Amare? An All-Star? A CENTER? There are several players in the West who are playing better than Marc Gasol and could’ve filled out the “center” position better than Amare, but I stuck to those listed as such on the ballot and he came out tops.

    The Western starters were screwed – but not as badly as the East. Still, the combined loss of performance (12.36 APP+) is roughly what Kevin Garnett is putting out for the Boston Celtics in 2010. Wouldn’t you like that amount of production in your team?

    The coaches did their best to right the ship – everyone they selected made my list as well. In fact, the only person that didn’t make my cut is Amare so the sum difference being denied to this team is what he lacks in comparison to Marc Gasol (3.46 APP+). That’s about the amount of performance the worst starter on a team (Mehmet Okur, Mike Bibby) is delivering each night. As a result, I predict the West should decisively defeat the East.

    If anyone actually played like they cared in the All-Star contest, that is.

    Anyway, being a fan, I voted every day that I had access to a computer (baring weekends). I remained disciplined and only voted based on APP+, though I did exclude any injured player. Here were my voting results:

      Western Conference Eastern Conference
    Position Player Days Voted Player Days Voted
    G Chris Paul 27 Dwyane Wade 39
    Kobe Bryant 27 Rajon Rondo 33
    Deron Williams 16 Joe Johnson 3
    Steve Nash 8 Richard Hamilton* 2
        Ben Gordon 1
    F Dirk Nowitzki 37 LeBron James 39
    Pau Gasol 20 Chris Bosh 37
    Tim Duncan 14 Antawn Jamison 2
    Carmelo Anthony 4    
    Kevin Durant 3    
    C Marc Gasol 25 Dwight Howard 26
    Andrew Bynum 11 Al Horford 3
    Marcus Camby 3    

    * I didn’t realize Richard Hamilton was injured after his first game and accidentally voted him in twice when I should’ve probably sent those votes to Rajon Rondo.

    Finally, each day, I wrote in the most deserving player who wasn’t listed on the ballot. Well, except for the first day in which I sent in my homer vote for Erick Dampier. The other (real) votes were: Zach Randolph (20 votes), Joakim Noah (15 votes) and Chris Kaman (3 votes).

    Sunday, January 31st, 2010 at 07:05
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