I figured I’d pump out this final 2010 NBA Season post before LeBron James announces his free agency decision tomorrow.

I’ve already given the NBA Sim versions of the 2010 Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Rookie of the Year and Most Improved Player so there’s only one left: who is the Most Valuable Player of the season? Like I did with those fine previous efforts, I shall be conducting my research using APP+ (Adjusted Pece Performance above Positional Average). Without further ado, here are the top 10 candidates, from highest to lowest rated:

Top 10 MVP Candidates (Ordered by APP+)
#	Player	Team	Pos.	pPPG	pRPG	pAPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	APP+
1	LeBron James		F	32.50	7.98	9.37	0.503	0.333	0.767	28.50
	Chris Paul		G	20.18	4.58	11.52	0.493	0.409	0.847	19.89
2	Dwyane Wade		G	29.64	5.41	7.26	0.476	0.300	0.761	19.84
3	Kevin Durant		G-F	32.38	8.36	3.03	0.476	0.365	0.900	19.72
4	David Lee		F	21.91	12.46	3.87	0.545	0.000	0.812	18.80
5	Pau Gasol		F	19.73	12.17	3.61	0.536	0.000	0.790	18.44
6	Dwight Howard		C-F	19.92	14.34	1.91	0.612	0.000	0.592	18.22
7	Chris Bosh		F-C	25.75	11.65	2.55	0.518	0.364	0.797	17.78
8	Dirk Nowitzki		F	27.05	8.27	2.91	0.481	0.421	0.915	17.36
9	Deron Williams		G	19.91	4.25	11.19	0.469	0.371	0.801	16.28
10	Gerald Wallace		F	20.17	11.09	2.34	0.484	0.371	0.776	15.64
NOTE: Chris Paul only played in 45 games. This doesn’t satisfy my personal rule that players must participate in at least 60% of a season to be considered eligible for post-season awards.

This wasn’t even close. LeBron performed over 4 times as much as the average forward since 1980 (with an APP of 37.76 to 9.26) and even outperformed his closest rivals by 8.66 APP+ units (roughly the value of an average NBA player). Let that sink in: LeBron was better than his closest rival by pretty much an entire other player’s production. That is insane!

As usual, to wrap up this slightly content-lite blog, here are the All-NBA Teams based on APP+ …

All-NBA First Team
Position	Player	Team	APP+
F	LeBron James		28.50
G	Dwyane Wade		19.84
G	Kevin Durant		19.72
F	David Lee		18.80
C	Dwight Howard		19.72

All-NBA Second Team
Position	Player	Team	APP+
F	Pau Gasol		18.44
F	Chris Bosh		17.78
G	Deron Williams		16.28
G	Kobe Bryant		14.96
C	Al Horford		14.35

All-NBA Third Team
Position	Player	Team	APP+
F	Dirk Nowitzki		17.36
F	Gerald Wallace		15.64
G	Rajon Rondo		14.85
G	Steve Nash		14.69
C	Brook Lopez		14.09

APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.

APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.
An average player between 1980-2010 will have a 0.00 APP+

Stats through 4/14/10

Only two more of these 2010 catch-up blogs! I promise.

Aaron Brooks took home this season’s most improved honors and, as usual, I have something to say to the contrary of the NBA’s decision. As I said last year:

The annual Most Improved Player award is probably the regular season honor I have the most problems with. Not only is the conditions for candidacy vague like the other awards, but whole other realms of problematic circumstances come into play. Some candidates appear to be young starters who take the next step and become all stars. Others are comeback kids who were hobbled for a season – either by injury or slump – and have returned to form. Still other candidates are breakout players who were probably pretty good during the previous season, but now have more minutes or a bigger role on a (possibly different) team. By the end of all this, what exactly are we measuring when we say “most improved?”

It’s easy to track individual player performance (I use APP+), but in order to not have the difference in performance from season to season be over-affected by change in minutes I divide change in performance by the ratio of change in minutes per game (what I call MIP Value). I like to have a 50-game (or 60%) cut off for all of my findings (otherwise it doesn’t feel like a completed year to me, but this is purely a personal call), therefore some players have been disqualified. Here are the Top 10 players with the highest MIP Value.

Top 10 Most Improved Players (Ordered by ΔAPP+ / ΔMPG)
			2009 NBA Season			2010 NBA Season
#	Player	Pos.	Team	APP+	MPG	Team	APP+	MPG	ΔAPP+	Δ MPG	MIP Value
	Carlos Boozer*	F-C		9.44	32.35		15.50	34.27	6.06	1.06	5.72
1	Kevin Durant	F		14.12	38.99		19.72	39.50	5.60	1.01	5.53
2	Josh Smith	F		8.98	35.09		13.95	35.44	4.97	1.01	4.92
3	Aaron Brooks	G		0.26	24.98		7.26	35.60	7.00	1.43	4.91
4	David Lee	F		13.68	38.86		18.80	37.27	5.12	1.07	4.79
	Greg Oden†	C		4.31	21.54		9.57	23.90	5.26	1.11	4.74
5	Joakim Noah	C		5.25	24.23		10.97	30.08	5.72	1.24	4.61
6	Marc Gasol	C		8.04	30.74		13.38	35.78	5.34	1.16	4.59
7	Ben Wallace	C-F		0.88	23.46		6.20	28.62	5.32	1.22	4.36
	Ryan Bowen	F		-5.84	10.43		-2.55	8.00	3.29	0.77	4.29
	Nazr Mohammed*	C		-6.09	8.74		2.20	16.97	8.29	1.94	4.27
8	Russell Westbrook	G		6.40	32.54		10.81	34.30	4.41	1.05	4.18
9	Louis Williams	G		1.87	23.69		7.04	29.88	5.17	1.26	4.10
	Nicolas Batum†	F		-1.91	18.41		3.61	24.81	5.52	1.35	4.10
	Danilo Gallinari*	F		-3.61	14.71		5.76	33.91	9.37	2.30	4.07
10	Brook Lopez	C		9.27	30.50		14.09	36.91	4.82	1.21	3.98
* – Player did not play 50 games in 2009 NBA Season † – Player did not play 50 games in 2010 NBA Season

Utah’s Carlos Boozer had the most dramatic improvement in performance this season, however one suspects this has more to do with playing in 41 more games during the 2010 season than he did the previous year. This leaves young phenom, Kevin Durant, as my pick for Most Improved. He did see a bump in minutes per game, however the difference was pretty much negligible (38.99 in 2009, 39.50 in 2010). What this suggests is that the vast majority of his improvement came not from external opportunity but internal development.

That said, Aaron Brooks wasn’t all that bad a selection. He was the third most improved player according to my methods. Last season’s winner, Danny Granger, was only the 10th most improved player so maybe voters paid a little more active attention to their NBA this year.

APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.

APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.
An average player between 1980-2010 will have a 0.00 APP+

MIP Value – Most Improved Player Value
((2010 APP+) – (2009 APP+)) / ((2010 MPG) / (2009 MPG))

Stats through 4/14/10

Yeah, I’m still backed up on posts. Here’s my take on the Rookie of the Year for the 2010 NBA season.

Tyreke Evans won the ROY honors but was up against some fierce competition (at least in the press) from Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings. Here’s a quick rundown of the best rookies from this season according to APP+.

Top 10 Rookies (Ordered by APP+)
#	Player	Pos.	Team	Pace	PPG	RPG	APG	APP	posAPP	APP+
1	Tyreke Evans	G		94.0	20.1	5.3	5.8	21.38	9.47	11.91
2	Stephen Curry	G		100.4	17.5	4.5	5.9	18.64	9.47	9.16
	Reggie Williams	F		100.4	15.2	4.6	2.8	15.86	9.26	6.60
3	Brandon Jennings	G		91.7	15.5	3.4	5.7	15.34	9.47	5.87
4	Darren Collison	G		92.6	12.4	2.5	5.7	14.99	9.47	5.52
5	Taj Gibson	F		93.1	9.0	7.5	0.9	12.67	9.26	3.41
6	Jonas Jerebko	F		88.5	9.3	6.0	0.7	12.19	9.26	2.93
7	Marcus Thornton	G		92.6	14.5	2.9	1.5	12.32	9.47	2.85
8	Jonny Flynn	G		96.1	13.5	2.4	4.4	11.76	9.47	2.29
9	DeJuan Blair	F		91.7	7.8	6.4	0.8	11.15	9.26	1.89
10	Omri Casspi	F		94.0	10.3	4.5	1.2	10.48	9.26	1.22

Note: Reggie Williams was ineligible as he failed to play in at least 50 games (60% of the season). This is not an NBA rule, but my own criteria for award selection.

Two things pop out here. First, it really seems like Evans and Curry were heads and shoulders above the rest of their class with third place, Jennings, producing almost half as much as second place, Curry. My second observation is what a guard-heavy class this was, as well. From the chart above and the All-Rookie Teams compiled below, there’s a clear difference in positional production as you go from guard to forward (and most alarmingly) to center.

2010 All-Rookie First Team

2010 All-Rookie Second Team

Pos.

Player

Pos.

Team

APP

posAPP

APP+

Pos.

Player

Pos.

Team

APP

posAPP

APP+

G

Tyreke Evans

G

13.11

3.97

9.14

G

Brandon Jennings

G

15.34

9.47

5.87

G

Stephen Curry

G

18.63

9.47

9.16

G

Darren Collison

G

14.99

9.47

5.52

F

Taj Gibson

F

12.67

9.26

3.41

F

DeJuan Blair

F

11.15

9.26

1.89

F

Jonas Jerebko

F

12.19

9.26

2.93

F

Omri Casspi

F

10.48

9.26

1.22

C

David Andersen

C

5.94

8.59

-2.65

C

Hasheem Thabeet

C

5.72

8.59

-2.87

APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.

APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.
An average player between 1980-2010 will have a 0.00 APP+

Stats through 4/14/10

Last month, Jamal Crawford of the Atlanta Hawks won the Sixth Man of the Year award. According to Wikipedia, the sixth man is the following:

“The sixth man in basketball is a player who is not a starter but comes off the bench much more often than other reserves, often being the first player to be substituted in. The sixth man often plays minutes equal to or exceeding some of the starters and posts similar statistics. He is often a player who can play multiple positions, hence his utility in substituting often.”

How I’ll define the elligible players will be the following:

• Must not be in top 5 of GP on team (essentially removes the regular starting 5 players)
• Must be next highest in MP (so he really is the next person receiving playtime)
• Must not start in 50% or more of his GP (the only actual SMOY criteria)

Following is a list of the player(s) from each team that passed this test. Greyed out players fit the first two rules for elligibility, but not the third (ranked by APP+).

Team Sixth Men (Ordered by APP+)
#	Player	Pos.	Team(s)	GS%	APP	posAPP	APP+
1	Manu Ginobili	G		.293	19.47	9.47	10.00
2	Lamar Odom	F		.463	18.94	9.26	9.68
	Louis Williams	G		.594	16.51	9.47	7.04
3	Jamal Crawford	G		.000	16.06	9.47	6.59
4	Paul Millsap	F		.098	15.56	9.26	6.30
5	Andray Blatche	F		.444	15.56	9.26	6.30
6	Anderson Varejao	F		.092	15.39	9.26	6.13
7	Jason Terry	G		.156	15.57	9.47	6.10
8	Al Harrington	F		.208	15.25	9.26	5.99
9	Darren Collison	F		.487	14.99	9.47	5.52
10	Udonis Haslem	F		.000	14.33	9.26	5.07
	Jose Calderon	G		.574	14.47	9.47	5.00
	George Hill	G		.551	12.79	9.47	3.32
11	Ersan Ilyasova	F		.383	12.23	9.26	2.97
12	J.R. Smith	G		.000	12.20	9.47	2.73
13	Charlie Villanueva	F		.205	11.55	9.26	2.29
14	Brad Miller	C		.451	10.69	8.59	2.10
15	C.J. Watson	G		.231	11.48	9.47	2.01
16	Omri Casspi	F		.403	10.48	9.26	1.22
17	Terrence Williams	F		.115	10.07	9.26	0.81
	Al Thornton	F		.613	9.92	9.26	0.66
18	Jared Dudley	F		.001	9.83	9.26	0.57
19	Amir Johnson	F		.061	9.53	9.26	0.27
20	James Harden	G		.000	9.72	9.47	0.25
21	J.J. Redick	G		.110	9.49	9.47	0.02
22	Craig Smith	F		.027	9.03	9.26	-0.23
23	Ramon Sessions	G		.012	9.00	9.47	-0.47
24	Chase Budinger	F		.054	8.80	9.26	-0.46
25	Rasheed Wallace	F-C		.165	9.90	10.64	-0.74
26	Dahntay Jones	G		.342	8.62	9.47	-0.85
27	Willie Green	G		.247	8.26	9.47	-1.21
28	Juwan Howard	F-C		.370	8.04	10.64	-2.60
29	D.J. Augustin	G		.025	6.50	9.47	-2.97
30	Sam Young	F		.013	6.15	9.26	-3.11

I was very surprised to find Manu heading this list – I really thought Crawford (at .000 GS%, he’s the best performing never-starter) or Odom (he seemed to be way more solid this year than his “inconsistent” reputation would imply) was going to be tops, but Ginobili really is the second coming of John Havlicek. Start him, bring him off the bench – it doesn’t matter: the guy is going to play well.

APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.

APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.
An average player between 1980-2010 will have a 0.00 APP+

Well, since NBA Sim has been down and out for a month, I’ve got quite a backlog of items to get through. First, I’d like to touch upon the Defensive Player of the Year award. As everyone who is even a casual NBA fan knows, Dwight Howard was awarded his second consecutive DPOY trophy.

As I mentioned last season, box score performance is not the only thing that goes into a person’s decision vote for the Defensive Player of the Year. I outlined two examples of this in both Hakeem Olajuwon in 1990 and David Robinson in 1991 losing the award to the stellar but less-spectacular Dennis Rodman. This practice can be both a good (leadership, defensive performance not recorded in box score) and bad (reputation, politics) thing as it takes other, non-box score factors into consideration. However, I’m going to stick with my Adjusted Pace Defense (APD) mechanism that’s based purely on box score performance, pace and position played.

Top 10 Players (Ordered by APD)
#	Player	Pos.	Team(s)	DRB	BLK	STL	PF	Pace	APD	posAPD	APD+
1	Dwight Howard	C-F		9.7	2.8	0.9	3.5	92.0	13.11	3.97	9.14
2	Marcus Camby	C-F		8.4	2.0	1.3	2.2	92.6 / 87.7	12.06	3.97	8.09
3	Gerald Wallace	F		8.1	1.1	1.5	2.6	90.4	10.96	3.11	7.85
4	Josh Smith	F-G		6.0	2.1	1.6	3.0	90.1	9.71	2.84	6.87
5	David Lee	F		8.9	0.5	1.0	3.2	94.0	9.86	3.11	6.75
6	Pau Gasol	F		7.6	1.7	0.6	2.3	92.8	9.63	3.11	6.52
7	LeBron James	F		6.4	1.0	1.6	1.6	91.4	9.53	3.11	6.42
8	Troy Murphy	F		8.4	0.5	1.0	2.4	97.1	9.33	3.11	6.22
9	Andrew Bogut	C		7.1	2.5	0.6	3.2	91.7	9.73	3.55	6.18
10	Kevin Durant	G-F		6.3	1.0	1.4	2.1	93.1	8.70	2.57	6.13

Once again, if I had a vote in the DPOY award, I would concur with the real life results and support Dwight Howard. Not only is he the most imposing physical presence in the game, he anchored an elite defense (4th in opponent PPG, 3rd in DRtg) and also led the league in both rebounds per game and blocks per game. So, really, no matter how one votes for this award, he kind of had it in the bag this year (again).

As always, I like to redo the NBA’s “name”-heavy end-of-the-year lists. Here are my All-Defensive Teams for the 2010 NBA Season. Scoff at some of these choices if you wish (especially the ones who made it here mostly on defensive rebounding like David Lee) but, statistically, these guys are the elite, possession-enders in the league.

2010 All-Defensive First Team

2010 All-Defensive Second Team

Pos.

Player

Pos.

Team(s)

APD

posAPD

APD+

Pos.

Player

Pos.

Team(s)

APD

posAPD

APD+

C

Dwight Howard

C-F

13.11

3.97

9.14

C

Marcus Camby

C-F

12.06

3.97

8.09

F

Gerald Wallace

F

10.96

3.11

7.85

F

David Lee

F

9.86

3.11

6.75

F

Josh Smith

F-G

9.70

2.84

6.87

F

Pau Gasol

F

9.63

3.11

6.52

G

Kevin Durant

G-F

8.70

2.57

6.13

G

Jason Kidd

G

7.41

2.03

5.38

G

Andre Iguodala

G-F

8.15

2.57

5.58

G

Dwyane Wade

G

6.42

2.03

4.39

APD – Adjusted Pace Defense
A (work-in-progress) weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the defensive side of a basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace and compared against the average at their position played to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

APD+ – Adjusted Pace Defense above Average Adjusted Pace Defense at Position(s) Played
Nothing more than a player’s APD value above the average APD value for his position.

Stats through 4/14/10

I found a great debate article on ESPN dealing with putting together the best team of all time.

Early this morning, a debate broke out among the SportsCenter staff in the show pod. The question was, “If you had to choose 5 players to start on an all-time NBA team, who would it be?” After about 15 minutes, we decided to do a draft. Four teams, and each picked a starting 5. The Team names are based on the order of the draft (Team A had the 1st pick, but in this “snake-style draft”, team A did not select again until pick number 8). For the record, Michel Jordan did NOT go with the first pick – here’s how the 1st round went: 1) Chamberlain, 2) Jordan, 3) Magic, 4) LeBron.

Well, this is right up my alley, so I had to put my own 2 cents into the argument. I went with each player’s highest APP+ value and then found which team had the highest average. Of course, I’d love to do a 10k sim (simulate the games 10,000 times), but I don’t have a system to do that … yet! Here’s the breakdown:

Chamberlain and Duncan would create perhaps the most fearsome offensive-defensive low post punch, but Oscar Robertson as a small forward? I wonder how effective he would be off the ball. Team A would lose size with Jerry West at the shooting guard position but Chamberlain’s production seems to more than make up for everyone else’s lapses.

Obviously this team won’t be lacking in terms of scoring with Barkley, Baylor, Maravich and especially Jordan. Also, they’re anchored by the winningest baller in the history of the sport. However, I’m concerned about ESPN’s selection of Pistol Pete. Sure, he was an electrifying player in both the NBA and college as well as a deeply interesting man, but he’s one of the league’s most famously overrated guys. As a result, Team B is dragged down a bit in terms of average APP+.

This is my favorite team. How can you beat these five in their prime? Still, I’m not so sure how Hakeem at the four would work. I would probably switch Kareem with him as Kareem was more of the finesse player while Hakeem was the better defender. Julius would be a big shooting guard, but at this early a stage in his career, he’s probably quick enough to keep up with even Jordan. With Hakeem and Kareem in the low post, Julius slashing, Bird shotting and Magic dishing, this is a solid, solid team.

Though comprised of unquestionably great players, I have the msot reservations about this team playing together. Look at who is playing each position … and then realize there’s only one ball to share between them!

Anyway, the APP+ has spoken and predicts Team A to be the winner. However, I’d still love to 10k sim this because I get the feeling Team C might edge everyone out.

There’s nothing like the naming of the NBA All-Stars to get me all good and pissed off. Well, nothing except for the Grammy winners each year, but still, this annual debacle is a close second. But I digress …

Anyway, as usual, here’s the NBA Sim rebutal to the less-than-stellar voter/coaches selections this year. My selections are based on APP+ which is APP above positional average APP. In case that didn’t make any sense, let’s say Chris Paul and LeBron James have the same APP. APP+ would show Chris Paul as actually having the better season since the point guard average APP is lower than a small forward’s average APP. Or, in a quick visual demonstration (with completely made-up data):

The following data use 2010 NBA stats through 1/18/2010. Thanks, as usual, Basketball-Reference.com!

Eastern Conference All-Stars
Voter/Coach Selections					Who Should Be Playing
	Player	Team(s)	APP+	Pos.	Player	Team(s)	APP+	Diff.
Start	LeBron James		17.48	F	LeBron James		17.48	0.00
	Kevin Garnett		12.32	F	David Lee		17.29	↓ 4.97
	Dwyane Wade		19.21	G	Dwyane Wade		19.21	0.00
	Allen Iverson		6.08	G	Rajon Rondo		15.33	↓ 9.25
	Dwight Howard		16.63	C	Dwight Howard		16.63	0.00
Starters Difference								↓ 14.22
Bench	Gerald Wallace		17.12	F	Gerald Wallace		17.12	0.00
	Chris Bosh		15.98	F	Chris Bosh		15.98	0.00
	Rajon Rondo		15.33	G	Joe Johnson		12.46	↑ 2.87
	Joe Johnson		12.46	G	Derrick Rose		9.87	↓ 0.85
	Al Horford		14.56	C	Brook Lopez		15.41	↓ 0.85
Wild Card	Paul Pierce		11.83	WC	Antawn Jamison		14.64	↓ 2.81
	Derrick Rose		9.87	WC	Al Horford		14.56	↓ 4.69
Reserves Difference								↑ 4.61
Total Difference								↓ 17.11

Whew … something really smells and it’s coming from the East! Let’s take a look at the starters, first. Remember, these positions were voted on by the fans and had to come from this crop of players. When making my picks (according to APP+), I went by this player pool, as well.

LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Dwight Howard are easy locks. All three are the best at their respective positions and should be starting in this game for the East. However, Kevin Garnett and Allen Iverson seem to have been chosen on sentimental value as they are just not performing at All-Star level this year. You’ll notice neither one makes my list! Rajon Rondo and David Lee should be their replacements. Rondo is a fairly obvious choice but, yes, I said David Lee!

Though usually playing “center” in Mike D’Antoni’s mish-mash, fastbreaking, 3-point shooting Knicks, he’s listed as a forward on the All-Star ballot. Yes, the Knicks playing at the 6th fastest pace in the game will inflate Lee’s stats a bit, but APP accounts for this and he still is leading Chris Bosh by a nose in performance. Remember, these selections are based off of stats from right around the time All-Star voting ended because since then, Bosh has made his move and is now doing better than Lee.

Anyway, the amount of performance that the Eastern All-Stars are losing because of fan selection is about what Andre Iguodala brings to the court each night. That is an incredible amount! Thanks, casual NBA fans!

Ok, onto the reserves who are selected by the coaches. Where voters overvalue name recognition and scoring, coaches respond mainly to team wins which irks me almost as much. All-Star status is a recognition for individual acheivement and yet coaches base many of their selections on a stat dependent upon multiple people! And – when you think about it – team wins are also a stat that is attributed to coaching! Perhaps this really is a way to pat each other on the back for a job well done rather than picking out the best players. Who knows?

It’s unanimous: both the coaches and I feel Chris Bosh and Gerald Wallace are the 3rd and 4th best Eastern Conference forwards (at the All-Star break). We also agree on Rajon Rondo and Joe Johnson’s inclusion, however their selection of Rajon has been pushed down because of the Iverson fiasco. Since my selections don’t suffer from the same mistake, I get to bring in another deserving guard: Gilbert Arenas with an APP+ of 11.96. Oops. Actually, it sounds like Gilbert won’t be able to attend the party in Dallas, so I’ll go with the next best guard: Derrick Rose.

While I agree Al Horford deserves to be an All-Star, he’s certainly not the second best center in the conference – that would be Brook Lopez of the lowly New Jersey Nets. Finally, the coaches feel a burning desire to let Paul Pierce show up to another of these games even though Antawn Jamison deserves it so much more.

As usual, the coaches do a much better job at picking All-Stars than voters (though that’s not saying much), as the amount of performance they’re leaving out is only 4.61 APP+ – or about what Anthony Randolph has done this year. Remeber, this production would be ADDED to the reserve group’s performance, not substituted for any reserve, so it’s still like leaving free money on the table.

Alright, let’s head to warmer (and hopefully better selected All-Stars) parts of the NBA …

Western Conference All-Stars
Voter/Coach Selections					Who Should Be Playing
	Player	Team(s)	APP+	Pos.	Player	Team(s)	APP+	Diff.
Start	Tim Duncan		18.53	F	Tim Duncan		18.53	0.00
	Carmelo Anthony		17.23	F	Dirk Nowitzki		18.51	↓ 1.28
	Steve Nash		15.82	G	Chris Paul		22.77	↓ 6.95
					Brandon Roy		16.47	↓ 0.67
	Kobe Bryant		15.80	G	Deron Williams		16.02	↑ 6.75
	Amare Stoudemire		11.01	C	Marc Gasol		14.47	↓ 3.46
Starters Difference								↓ 12.36
Bench	Dirk Nowitzki		18.51	F	Carmelo Anthony		17.23	↑ 1.28
	Kevin Durant		16.71	F	Kevin Durant		16.71	0.00
	Chris Paul		22.77	G	Steve Nash		15.82	↑ 0.65
	Brandon Roy		16.47	G	Jason Kidd*		13.11	↑ 0.65
	Pau Gasol		18.51	C	Pau Gasol		18.51	0.00
Wild Card	Deron Williams		16.02	WC	Zach Randolph		16.37	↓ 0.35
	Zach Randolph		16.37	WC	Kobe Bryant		15.80	↑ 0.57
Reserves Difference								↑ 8.68
Total Difference								↓ 3.46

I don’t know what is more surprising to me: the fact that the voters and I only agree on one player who should be starting for the Western Conference All-Stars, or the fact that the person we agree upon is 33-year old Tim Duncan! Listen, I’m fairly confident that the gentleman is the best power forward the sport has seen and I’m willing to show my math (someday), but who would guess he’s still outperforming an entire conference at his ripe old age?

Carmelo Anthony. Kobe Bryant. Blah, blah, blah. Yes, fans, I realize both guys put up a lot of points, are super recognizable, and Kobe is the leader of the defending champions, but Dirk Nowitzki and Brandon Roy are outperforming them this season. Steve Nash is still impressive even though he’s older than everyone (even Duncan) but it is a crime that Chris Paul’s dominance at the point guard position is not being rewarded by the NBA audience. And Amare? An All-Star? A CENTER? There are several players in the West who are playing better than Marc Gasol and could’ve filled out the “center” position better than Amare, but I stuck to those listed as such on the ballot and he came out tops.

The Western starters were screwed – but not as badly as the East. Still, the combined loss of performance (12.36 APP+) is roughly what Kevin Garnett is putting out for the Boston Celtics in 2010. Wouldn’t you like that amount of production in your team?

The coaches did their best to right the ship – everyone they selected made my list as well. In fact, the only person that didn’t make my cut is Amare so the sum difference being denied to this team is what he lacks in comparison to Marc Gasol (3.46 APP+). That’s about the amount of performance the worst starter on a team (Mehmet Okur, Mike Bibby) is delivering each night. As a result, I predict the West should decisively defeat the East.

If anyone actually played like they cared in the All-Star contest, that is.

Anyway, being a fan, I voted every day that I had access to a computer (baring weekends). I remained disciplined and only voted based on APP+, though I did exclude any injured player. Here were my voting results:

* I didn’t realize Richard Hamilton was injured after his first game and accidentally voted him in twice when I should’ve probably sent those votes to Rajon Rondo.

Finally, each day, I wrote in the most deserving player who wasn’t listed on the ballot. Well, except for the first day in which I sent in my homer vote for Erick Dampier. The other (real) votes were: Zach Randolph (20 votes), Joakim Noah (15 votes) and Chris Kaman (3 votes).

Basketball-reference.com lists personal fouls at both the individual and team level, however they don’t track offensive fouls. This isn’t a big deal until I came across trying to split my bread and butter statistic, APP, into offensive and defensive parts. I couldn’t, in good faith, just plop down all of a player’s personal fouls into one category or the other and I certainly couldn’t add it twice to both equations.

Luckily, another great basketball stats site, 82Games.com came to the rescue. There, they actually have kept data on how many total offensive fouls were called on players as well as teams. What I did was to sum up all of the personal fouls recorded to each team for all the full seasons of data on 82Games.com (2003-2009), sum up all of the offensive personal fouls recorded in that period of time, and find the percentage. Here are the results (in my nice, shiny table formatting!)

Thus, going forward, I will count 9.04% of an individual’s Personal Fouls against his Offensive APP and the remaining 90.96% count against his Defensive APP.

Basically, APP is a formula I use to bottle a player’s performance into one number without the bias of team pace. Using this formula, Chris Paul performed just slightly better than LeBron James did during the season so he would be my vote for MVP. One big criticism about this method of analysis is that it doesn’t factor wins into how well a player is perceived to have done for the year. But I have several arguments against that critique: Firstly, basketball is a team sport and everyone on the team – from the franchise player to the scrub at the end of the bench – is attributed each individual win or loss. Sure, some players are so good they are capabale of “taking over a game,” but that dominating performance would most definitely appear in his individual stats which is what APP is based in.

My second argument is really a question. Does the team with the most wins at the end of the regular season have the MVP? What if it’s consisted of two Top 10 players? What if it just has above average players at each position? It’s hard to determine who gets what portion of the win pie depending on what type of team has been constructed (although it’s a fascinating subject I’d like to try to figure out someday ). Even voters have proven that, while extremely relevant, wins aren’t the only deciding factor in who should be MVP. Since the beginning of MVP awards in 1956, the NBA has awarded the MVP to a player on the best (or tied for best) team, determined by win percentage, 63% of the time. An MVP has even been picked from as low as the ninth best team (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1976).

So wins don’t seem super-important to me. I figure that players who perform extremeley well, enough to be considered elite level and thus, an MVP candidate, will naturally be playing on these high-win teams, anyway. Though not necessarily. Anyway, here are the Top 10 players based on APP from the 2009 NBA Season. Using this method, Mr. Chris Paul would be holding the trophy rather than ‘Bronny. But, ah well.

Top 10 MVP Candidates (Ordered by Difference in APP)
#	Player	Team	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%	APP
1	Chris Paul	G		22.8	5.5	11.0	.503	.362	.868	36.74
2	LeBron James	F		28.4	7.6	7.2	.489	.344	.780	36.69
3	Dwyane Wade	G		30.2	5.0	7.5	.491	.317	.765	34.33
4	Dwight Howard	C-F		20.6	13.8	1.4	.572	.000	.594	29.59
5	Tim Duncan	F-C		19.3	10.7	3.5	.504	.000	.692	27.71
6	Dirk Nowitzki	F		25.9	8.4	2.4	.479	.359	.890	27.04
7	Chris Bosh	F-C		22.7	10.0	2.5	.487	.245	.817	26.81
8	Al Jefferson	F		23.1	11.0	1.6	.497	.000	.738	26.77
9	Pau Gasol	F		18.9	9.6	3.5	.567	.500	.781	26.49
10	Brandon Roy	G		22.6	4.7	5.1	.480	.377	.824	26.39

One thing I’ve taken note of recently is positional averages. Basically, I desired finding the league average APP for guards, forwards and centers. Now, if a player was listed as playing multiple positions (care of Basketball Reference), his APP would be used for both positions. Then, I would find the difference between a player’s APP and his positional average APP. Once again, if a player was a multiple-position baller, I would rate him against the higher of the two positional averages. Essentially, I wanted to experiment to see if comparing players against just their positional counterparts would change anything from a blanket comparison against every NBA player. First, the positional APP averages and then the results:

Random Table Style: 1979 Chicago Bulls

Okay here are the results after ordering by difference in APP above positional APP:

Top 10 MVP Candidates (Ordered by Difference above Positional APP)
#	Player	Team	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%	APP	Pos. APP	Diff.
1	Chris Paul	G		22.8	5.5	11.0	.503	.362	.868	36.74	9.93 (G)	26.81
2	LeBron James	F		28.4	7.6	7.2	.489	.344	.780	36.69	10.31 (F)	26.38
3	Dwyane Wade	G		30.2	5.0	7.5	.491	.317	.765	34.33	9.93 (G)	24.40
4	Dwight Howard	C-F		20.6	13.8	1.4	.572	.000	.594	29.59	10.31 (F)	19.28
5	Tim Duncan	F-C		19.3	10.7	3.5	.504	.000	.692	27.71	10.31 (F)	17.40
6	Dirk Nowitzki	F		25.9	8.4	2.4	.479	.359	.890	27.04	10.31 (F)	16.73
7	Chris Bosh	F-C		22.7	10.0	2.5	.487	.245	.817	26.81	10.31 (F)	16.50
8	Brandon Roy	G		22.6	4.7	5.1	.480	.377	.824	26.39	9.93 (G)	16.46*
9	Al Jefferson	F		23.1	11.0	1.6	.497	.000	.738	26.77	10.31 (F)	16.46**
9	Pau Gasol	F		18.9	9.6	3.5	.567	.500	.781	26.49	10.31 (F)	16.18

* Roy’s difference out to 4 digits is 16.4623
** Jefferson’s difference out to 4 digits is 16.4586

While nothing super crazy happened with this experiment (the same 10 players appear in both methods) there were a few minor shake ups. Brandon Roy moved up from 10th spot to 8th, while Pau Gasol moved down to 10th. The All-NBA teams are a complete wash … regardles of which method you use all three teams come out with the same results. Here they are though, in case you don’t believe me:

APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

APP for an average player in the league for 2009 Season: 9.88
Stats through 4/15/09

The annual Most Improved Player award is probably the regular season honor I have the most problems with. Not only is the conditions for candidacy vague like the other awards, but whole other realms of problematic circumstances come into play. Some candidates appear to be young starters who take the next step and become all stars. Others are comeback kids who were hobbled for a season – either by injury or slump – and have returned to form. Still other candidates are breakout players who were probably pretty good during the previous season, but now have more minutes or a bigger role on a (possibly different) team. By the end of all this, what exactly are we measuring when we say “most improved?” Improvement in performance? Resiliency? Exceeding expectations of greater responsibility? It’s mindboggling to this NBA fan who appreciates careful, balanced, measurable analysis. Meanwhile, the people who vote appreciate jumps in scoring, so Danny Granger took the trophy home.

I tried to devise a system to see who actually had the biggest jump in APP from 2008 to 2009 (the approach that I took last year). So, here are the Top 10 largest (positive) changes in APP between the 2008 and 2009 NBA seasons:

Top 10 Most Improved Players (Ordered by Difference in APP)
#	Player	Pos.	2008 Team	2008 APP	2009 Team	2009 APP	Δ APP
1	Nene Hilario	F-C		7.13		19.57	12.44
2	Chris Andersen	F		1.95		12.37	10.42
3	Dwyane Wade	G		25.07		34.33	9.26
4	Dominic McGuire	F		2.75		11.02	8.28
5	Spencer Hawes	C		5.36		13.58	8.21
6	Kevin Durant	G-F		15.90		24.10	8.20
7	Von Wafer	G		0.52		8.14	7.62
8	Paul Millsap	F		11.20		18.68	7.48
9	Jeff Green	F		9.34		16.37	7.04
10	C.J. Watson	G		3.78		10.61	6.83

Kind of a mish-mash of a list, really. Let’s look at a few examples to see why.

Nene Hilario – Sure, Nene had his best season as a pro in 2009, but is comparing it to his 2008 season a fair assessment of improvement? He only played 16 total games in 2008 due to a testiculur cancer scare. While it is amazing that he was able to recover enough to bounce back into the league, it’s a pretty safe bet he’d be able to top what he did in just 16 games in a complete season.

Chris Andersen – The Birdman is an even worse case. He only played about 7 minutes in 5 total games in 2008. This season he averaged over 20 minutes per game in 71 games. Balanced comparison?

Paul Millsap – Millsap played great in both seasons, however he increased his minutes per game from a role player’s 20.7 (2008) to a sixth man’s 30.1 (2009). Is the increase in his APP more of a result of actual improvement or more minutes?

To try and standardize this selection process I added a few rules. First, I added my 60% rule which basically says any season in which a player plays less than 60% of the regular season games (50 in an 82 game season) is inelligible. Second, I found the percentage change in minutes played from the two seasons. What I was hoping to do with this is to eliminate the benefit of APP due just to increased minutes. Essentially, here was my altered MIP formula:

MIP Value = (Δ APP / (2008 MPG / 2009 MPG))
MIP Value = (Δ APP / Δ MPG)

Top 10 Most Improved Players (Ordered by Difference in APP / %Change In MPG)
#	Player	Pos.	2008 Team	2008 APP	2008 MPG	2009 Team	2009 APP	2009 MPG	Δ APP	%Δ MPG	Δ APP / %Δ MPG
1	Dwyane Wade	G		25.07	38.31		34.33	38.58	9.26	1.01	9.19
2	Kevin Durant	G-F		15.90	34.60		24.10	38.99	8.20	1.13	7.28
	Nene Hilario	F-C		7.13	16.63		19.57	32.60	12.44	1.96	6.34
3	Rajon Rondo	G		16.12	29.95		22.23	33.03	6.11	1.10	5.54
4	Devin Harris	G		17.36	31.59		23.63	36.14	6.27	1.14	5.48
5	Troy Murphy	F		15.39	28.08		21.99	34.00	6.60	1.21	5.45
6	Jeff Green	F		9.34	28.16		16.37	36.79	7.04	1.31	5.38
7	Paul Millsap	F		11.20	20.76		18.68	30.13	7.48	1.45	5.15
8	Andrea Bargnani	F		8.29	23.86		14.43	31.45	6.15	1.32	4.66
9	David Lee	F		17.41	29.09		22.94	34.86	5.53	1.20	4.61
	Jameer Nelson	G		15.00	28.42		19.64	31.17	4.64	1.10	4.23
10	Danny Granger	F		18.02	35.95		22.23	36.18	4.21	1.01	4.18

Dwyane Wade played in 51 games last season but shut it down after still feeling a lot of pain from his pre-season surgeries. Upon returning from a successful Olympics campaign, he completely raised his game from 25.07 (2008 APP) to 34.33 (2009 APP) (a change of 9.26) playing essentially the same amount of minutes per game: 38.31 (2008 MPG), 38.58 (2009 MPG). I’d say his improvement was more noteworthy than, say, Danny Granger who also played similar minutes per game both season (35.95 in 2008, 36.18 in 2009) but whose change in APP wasn’t so great (18.02 in 2008, 22.23 in 2009 … a difference of only 4.21). Sorry D-Wade … and as a Mavs fan, this might be the only time I’ll ever utter those words.

APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

APP for an average player in the league for 2009 Season: 9.88
APP for an average player in the league for 2008 Season: 9.61
Stats through 4/15/09