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  • MVP 2010: LeBron Rules

    I figured I’d pump out this final 2010 NBA Season post before LeBron James announces his free agency decision tomorrow.

    I’ve already given the NBA Sim versions of the 2010 Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Rookie of the Year and Most Improved Player so there’s only one left: who is the Most Valuable Player of the season? Like I did with those fine previous efforts, I shall be conducting my research using APP+ (Adjusted Pece Performance above Positional Average). Without further ado, here are the top 10 candidates, from highest to lowest rated:

    Top 10 MVP Candidates (Ordered by APP+)
    # Player Team Pos. pPPG pRPG pAPG FG% 3P% FT% APP+
    1 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers F 32.50 7.98 9.37 0.503 0.333 0.767 28.50
    Chris Paul New Orleans Hornets G 20.18 4.58 11.52 0.493 0.409 0.847 19.89
    2 Dwyane Wade Miami Heat G 29.64 5.41 7.26 0.476 0.300 0.761 19.84
    3 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder G-F 32.38 8.36 3.03 0.476 0.365 0.900 19.72
    4 David Lee New York Knicks F 21.91 12.46 3.87 0.545 0.000 0.812 18.80
    5 Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 19.73 12.17 3.61 0.536 0.000 0.790 18.44
    6 Dwight Howard Orlando Magic C-F 19.92 14.34 1.91 0.612 0.000 0.592 18.22
    7 Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors F-C 25.75 11.65 2.55 0.518 0.364 0.797 17.78
    8 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 27.05 8.27 2.91 0.481 0.421 0.915 17.36
    9 Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 19.91 4.25 11.19 0.469 0.371 0.801 16.28
    10 Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 20.17 11.09 2.34 0.484 0.371 0.776 15.64
    NOTE: Chris Paul only played in 45 games. This doesn’t satisfy my personal rule that players must participate in at least 60% of a season to be considered eligible for post-season awards.

    This wasn’t even close. LeBron performed over 4 times as much as the average forward since 1980 (with an APP of 37.76 to 9.26) and even outperformed his closest rivals by 8.66 APP+ units (roughly the value of an average NBA player). Let that sink in: LeBron was better than his closest rival by pretty much an entire other player’s production. That is insane!

    As usual, to wrap up this slightly content-lite blog, here are the All-NBA Teams based on APP+ …

    All-NBA First Team
    Position Player Team APP+
    F LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers 28.50
    G Dwyane Wade Miami Heat 19.84
    G Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder 19.72
    F David Lee New York Knicks 18.80
    C Dwight Howard Orlando Magic 19.72

     

    All-NBA Second Team
    Position Player Team APP+
    F Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers 18.44
    F Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors 17.78
    G Deron Williams Utah Jazz 16.28
    G Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers 14.96
    C Al Horford Atlanta Hawks 14.35

     

    All-NBA Third Team
    Position Player Team APP+
    F Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks 17.36
    F Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats 15.64
    G Rajon Rondo Boston Celtics 14.85
    G Steve Nash Phoenix Suns 14.69
    C Brook Lopez New Jersey Nets 14.09

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.

    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.
    An average player between 1980-2010 will have a 0.00 APP+

    Stats through 4/14/10

    Wednesday, July 7th, 2010 at 14:42
  • MIP 2010: Durant Develops

    Only two more of these 2010 catch-up blogs! I promise.

    Aaron Brooks took home this season’s most improved honors and, as usual, I have something to say to the contrary of the NBA’s decision. As I said last year:

    The annual Most Improved Player award is probably the regular season honor I have the most problems with. Not only is the conditions for candidacy vague like the other awards, but whole other realms of problematic circumstances come into play. Some candidates appear to be young starters who take the next step and become all stars. Others are comeback kids who were hobbled for a season – either by injury or slump – and have returned to form. Still other candidates are breakout players who were probably pretty good during the previous season, but now have more minutes or a bigger role on a (possibly different) team. By the end of all this, what exactly are we measuring when we say “most improved?”

    It’s easy to track individual player performance (I use APP+), but in order to not have the difference in performance from season to season be over-affected by change in minutes I divide change in performance by the ratio of change in minutes per game (what I call MIP Value). I like to have a 50-game (or 60%) cut off for all of my findings (otherwise it doesn’t feel like a completed year to me, but this is purely a personal call), therefore some players have been disqualified. Here are the Top 10 players with the highest MIP Value.

    Top 10 Most Improved Players (Ordered by ΔAPP+ / ΔMPG)
      2009 NBA Season 2010 NBA Season  
    # Player Pos. Team APP+ MPG Team APP+ MPG ΔAPP+ Δ MPG MIP Value
      Carlos Boozer* F-C Utah Jazz 9.44 32.35 Utah Jazz 15.50 34.27 6.06 1.06 5.72
    1 Kevin Durant F Oklahoma City Thunder 14.12 38.99 Oklahoma City Thunder 19.72 39.50 5.60 1.01 5.53
    2 Josh Smith F Atlanta Hawks 8.98 35.09 Atlanta Hawks 13.95 35.44 4.97 1.01 4.92
    3 Aaron Brooks G Houston Rockets 0.26 24.98 Houston Rockets 7.26 35.60 7.00 1.43 4.91
    4 David Lee F New York Knicks 13.68 38.86 New York Knicks 18.80 37.27 5.12 1.07 4.79
    Greg Oden† C Portland Trail Blazers 4.31 21.54 Portland Trail Blazers 9.57 23.90 5.26 1.11 4.74
    5 Joakim Noah C Chicago Bulls 5.25 24.23 Chicago Bulls 10.97 30.08 5.72 1.24 4.61
    6 Marc Gasol C Memphis Grizzlies 8.04 30.74 Memphis Grizzlies 13.38 35.78 5.34 1.16 4.59
    7 Ben Wallace C-F Cleveland Cavaliers 0.88 23.46 Detroit Pistons 6.20 28.62 5.32 1.22 4.36
    Ryan Bowen F New Orleans Hornets -5.84 10.43 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.55 8.00 3.29 0.77 4.29
    Nazr Mohammed* C Charlotte Bobcats -6.09 8.74 Charlotte Bobcats 2.20 16.97 8.29 1.94 4.27
    8 Russell Westbrook G Oklahoma City Thunder 6.40 32.54 Oklahoma City Thunder 10.81 34.30 4.41 1.05 4.18
    9 Louis Williams G Philadelphia 76ers 1.87 23.69 Philadelphia 76ers 7.04 29.88 5.17 1.26 4.10
    Nicolas Batum† F Portland Trail Blazers -1.91 18.41 Portland Trail Blazers 3.61 24.81 5.52 1.35 4.10
    Danilo Gallinari* F New York Knicks -3.61 14.71 New York Knicks 5.76 33.91 9.37 2.30 4.07
    10 Brook Lopez C New Jersey Nets 9.27 30.50 New Jersey Nets 14.09 36.91 4.82 1.21 3.98
    * – Player did not play 50 games in 2009 NBA Season
    † – Player did not play 50 games in 2010 NBA Season

    Utah’s Carlos Boozer had the most dramatic improvement in performance this season, however one suspects this has more to do with playing in 41 more games during the 2010 season than he did the previous year. This leaves young phenom, Kevin Durant, as my pick for Most Improved. He did see a bump in minutes per game, however the difference was pretty much negligible (38.99 in 2009, 39.50 in 2010). What this suggests is that the vast majority of his improvement came not from external opportunity but internal development.

    That said, Aaron Brooks wasn’t all that bad a selection. He was the third most improved player according to my methods. Last season’s winner, Danny Granger, was only the 10th most improved player so maybe voters paid a little more active attention to their NBA this year.

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.

    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.
    An average player between 1980-2010 will have a 0.00 APP+

    MIP Value – Most Improved Player Value
    ((2010 APP+) – (2009 APP+)) / ((2010 MPG) / (2009 MPG))

    Stats through 4/14/10

    Monday, June 21st, 2010 at 18:50
  • ROY 2010: Tyreke Triumphs

    Yeah, I’m still backed up on posts. Here’s my take on the Rookie of the Year for the 2010 NBA season.

    Tyreke Evans won the ROY honors but was up against some fierce competition (at least in the press) from Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings. Here’s a quick rundown of the best rookies from this season according to APP+.

    Top 10 Rookies (Ordered by APP+)
    # Player Pos. Team Pace PPG RPG APG APP posAPP APP+
    1 Tyreke Evans G Sacramento Kings 94.0 20.1 5.3 5.8 21.38 9.47 11.91
    2 Stephen Curry G Golden State Warriors 100.4 17.5 4.5 5.9 18.64 9.47 9.16
    Reggie Williams F Golden State Warriors 100.4 15.2 4.6 2.8 15.86 9.26 6.60
    3 Brandon Jennings G Milwaukee Bucks 91.7 15.5 3.4 5.7 15.34 9.47 5.87
    4 Darren Collison G New Orleans Hornets 92.6 12.4 2.5 5.7 14.99 9.47 5.52
    5 Taj Gibson F Chicago Bulls 93.1 9.0 7.5 0.9 12.67 9.26 3.41
    6 Jonas Jerebko F Detroit Pistons 88.5 9.3 6.0 0.7 12.19 9.26 2.93
    7 Marcus Thornton G New Orleans Hornets 92.6 14.5 2.9 1.5 12.32 9.47 2.85
    8 Jonny Flynn G Minnesota Timberwolves 96.1 13.5 2.4 4.4 11.76 9.47 2.29
    9 DeJuan Blair F San Antonio Spurs 91.7 7.8 6.4 0.8 11.15 9.26 1.89
    10 Omri Casspi F Sacramento Kings 94.0 10.3 4.5 1.2 10.48 9.26 1.22

    Note: Reggie Williams was ineligible as he failed to play in at least 50 games (60% of the season). This is not an NBA rule, but my own criteria for award selection.

    Two things pop out here. First, it really seems like Evans and Curry were heads and shoulders above the rest of their class with third place, Jennings, producing almost half as much as second place, Curry. My second observation is what a guard-heavy class this was, as well. From the chart above and the All-Rookie Teams compiled below, there’s a clear difference in positional production as you go from guard to forward (and most alarmingly) to center.

    2010 All-Rookie First Team 2010 All-Rookie Second Team
    Pos. Player Pos. Team APP posAPP APP+ Pos. Player Pos. Team APP posAPP APP+
    G Tyreke Evans G Sacramento Kings 13.11 3.97 9.14 G Brandon Jennings G Milwaukee Bucks 15.34 9.47 5.87
    G Stephen Curry G Golden State Warriors 18.63 9.47 9.16 G Darren Collison G New Orleans Hornets 14.99 9.47 5.52
    F Taj Gibson F Chicago Bulls 12.67 9.26 3.41 F DeJuan Blair F San Antonio Spurs 11.15 9.26 1.89
    F Jonas Jerebko F Detroit Pistons 12.19 9.26 2.93 F Omri Casspi F Sacramento Kings 10.48 9.26 1.22
    C David Andersen C Houston Rockets 5.94 8.59 -2.65 C Hasheem Thabeet C Memphis Grizzlies 5.72 8.59 -2.87

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.

    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.
    An average player between 1980-2010 will have a 0.00 APP+

    Stats through 4/14/10

    Thursday, May 27th, 2010 at 16:04
  • SMOY 2010: Ginobili Gets Jobbed

    Last month, Jamal Crawford of the Atlanta Hawks won the Sixth Man of the Year award. According to Wikipedia, the sixth man is the following:

    “The sixth man in basketball is a player who is not a starter but comes off the bench much more often than other reserves, often being the first player to be substituted in. The sixth man often plays minutes equal to or exceeding some of the starters and posts similar statistics. He is often a player who can play multiple positions, hence his utility in substituting often.”

    How I’ll define the elligible players will be the following:

    • Must not be in top 5 of GP on team (essentially removes the regular starting 5 players)
    • Must be next highest in MP (so he really is the next person receiving playtime)
    • Must not start in 50% or more of his GP (the only actual SMOY criteria)

    Following is a list of the player(s) from each team that passed this test. Greyed out players fit the first two rules for elligibility, but not the third (ranked by APP+).

    Team Sixth Men (Ordered by APP+)
    # Player Pos. Team(s) GS% APP posAPP APP+
    1 Manu Ginobili G San Antonio Spurs .293 19.47 9.47 10.00
    2 Lamar Odom F Los Angeles Lakers .463 18.94 9.26 9.68
    Louis Williams G Philadelphia 76ers .594 16.51 9.47 7.04
    3 Jamal Crawford G Atlanta Hawks .000 16.06 9.47 6.59
    4 Paul Millsap F Utah Jazz .098 15.56 9.26 6.30
    5 Andray Blatche F Washington Wizards .444 15.56 9.26 6.30
    6 Anderson Varejao F Cleveland Cavaliers .092 15.39 9.26 6.13
    7 Jason Terry G Dallas Mavericks .156 15.57 9.47 6.10
    8 Al Harrington F New York Knickerbockers .208 15.25 9.26 5.99
    9 Darren Collison F New Orleans Hornets .487 14.99 9.47 5.52
    10 Udonis Haslem F Miami Heat .000 14.33 9.26 5.07
    Jose Calderon G Toronto Raptors .574 14.47 9.47 5.00
    George Hill G San Antonio Spurs .551 12.79 9.47 3.32
    11 Ersan Ilyasova F Milwaukee Bucks .383 12.23 9.26 2.97
    12 J.R. Smith G Denver Nuggets .000 12.20 9.47 2.73
    13 Charlie Villanueva F Detroit Pistons .205 11.55 9.26 2.29
    14 Brad Miller C Chicago Bulls .451 10.69 8.59 2.10
    15 C.J. Watson G Golden State Warriors .231 11.48 9.47 2.01
    16 Omri Casspi F Sacramento Kings .403 10.48 9.26 1.22
    17 Terrence Williams F New Jersey Nets .115 10.07 9.26 0.81
    Al Thornton F Los Angeles Clippers Washington Wizards .613 9.92 9.26 0.66
    18 Jared Dudley F Phoenix Suns .001 9.83 9.26 0.57
    19 Amir Johnson F Toronto Raptors .061 9.53 9.26 0.27
    20 James Harden G Oklahoma City Thunder .000 9.72 9.47 0.25
    21 J.J. Redick G Orlando Magic .110 9.49 9.47 0.02
    22 Craig Smith F Los Angeles Clippers .027 9.03 9.26 -0.23
    23 Ramon Sessions G Minnesota Timberwolves .012 9.00 9.47 -0.47
    24 Chase Budinger F Houston Rockets .054 8.80 9.26 -0.46
    25 Rasheed Wallace F-C Boston Celtics .165 9.90 10.64 -0.74
    26 Dahntay Jones G Indiana Pacers .342 8.62 9.47 -0.85
    27 Willie Green G Philadelphia 76ers .247 8.26 9.47 -1.21
    28 Juwan Howard F-C Portland Trail Blazers .370 8.04 10.64 -2.60
    29 D.J. Augustin G Charlotte Bobcats .025 6.50 9.47 -2.97
    30 Sam Young F Memphis Grizzlies .013 6.15 9.26 -3.11

    I was very surprised to find Manu heading this list – I really thought Crawford (at .000 GS%, he’s the best performing never-starter) or Odom (he seemed to be way more solid this year than his “inconsistent” reputation would imply) was going to be tops, but Ginobili really is the second coming of John Havlicek. Start him, bring him off the bench – it doesn’t matter: the guy is going to play well.

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.

    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.
    An average player between 1980-2010 will have a 0.00 APP+

    Thursday, May 20th, 2010 at 16:07
  • DPOY 2010: Dwight Dominates

    Well, since NBA Sim has been down and out for a month, I’ve got quite a backlog of items to get through. First, I’d like to touch upon the Defensive Player of the Year award. As everyone who is even a casual NBA fan knows, Dwight Howard was awarded his second consecutive DPOY trophy.

    As I mentioned last season, box score performance is not the only thing that goes into a person’s decision vote for the Defensive Player of the Year. I outlined two examples of this in both Hakeem Olajuwon in 1990 and David Robinson in 1991 losing the award to the stellar but less-spectacular Dennis Rodman. This practice can be both a good (leadership, defensive performance not recorded in box score) and bad (reputation, politics) thing as it takes other, non-box score factors into consideration. However, I’m going to stick with my Adjusted Pace Defense (APD) mechanism that’s based purely on box score performance, pace and position played.

    Top 10 Players (Ordered by APD)
    # Player Pos. Team(s) DRB BLK STL PF Pace APD posAPD APD+
    1 Dwight Howard C-F Orlando Magic 9.7 2.8 0.9 3.5 92.0 13.11 3.97 9.14
    2 Marcus Camby C-F Los Angeles Clippers Portalnd Trail Blazers 8.4 2.0 1.3 2.2 92.6 / 87.7 12.06 3.97 8.09
    3 Gerald Wallace F Charlotte Bobcats 8.1 1.1 1.5 2.6 90.4 10.96 3.11 7.85
    4 Josh Smith F-G Atlanta Hawks 6.0 2.1 1.6 3.0 90.1 9.71 2.84 6.87
    5 David Lee F New York Knicks 8.9 0.5 1.0 3.2 94.0 9.86 3.11 6.75
    6 Pau Gasol F Los Angeles Lakers 7.6 1.7 0.6 2.3 92.8 9.63 3.11 6.52
    7 LeBron James F Cleveland Cavaliers 6.4 1.0 1.6 1.6 91.4 9.53 3.11 6.42
    8 Troy Murphy F Indiana Pacers 8.4 0.5 1.0 2.4 97.1 9.33 3.11 6.22
    9 Andrew Bogut C Milwaukee Bucks 7.1 2.5 0.6 3.2 91.7 9.73 3.55 6.18
    10 Kevin Durant G-F Oklahoma City Thunder 6.3 1.0 1.4 2.1 93.1 8.70 2.57 6.13

    Once again, if I had a vote in the DPOY award, I would concur with the real life results and support Dwight Howard. Not only is he the most imposing physical presence in the game, he anchored an elite defense (4th in opponent PPG, 3rd in DRtg) and also led the league in both rebounds per game and blocks per game. So, really, no matter how one votes for this award, he kind of had it in the bag this year (again).

    As always, I like to redo the NBA’s “name”-heavy end-of-the-year lists. Here are my All-Defensive Teams for the 2010 NBA Season. Scoff at some of these choices if you wish (especially the ones who made it here mostly on defensive rebounding like David Lee) but, statistically, these guys are the elite, possession-enders in the league.

    2010 All-Defensive First Team 2010 All-Defensive Second Team
    Pos. Player Pos. Team(s) APD posAPD APD+ Pos. Player Pos. Team(s) APD posAPD APD+
    C Dwight Howard C-F Orlando Magic 13.11 3.97 9.14 C Marcus Camby C-F Los Angeles Clippers Portalnd Trail Blazers 12.06 3.97 8.09
    F Gerald Wallace F Charlotte Bobcats 10.96 3.11 7.85 F David Lee F New York Knicks 9.86 3.11 6.75
    F Josh Smith F-G Atlanta Hawks 9.70 2.84 6.87 F Pau Gasol F Los Angeles Lakers 9.63 3.11 6.52
    G Kevin Durant G-F Oklahoma City Thunder 8.70 2.57 6.13 G Jason Kidd G Dallas Mavericks 7.41 2.03 5.38
    G Andre Iguodala G-F Philadelphia 76ers 8.15 2.57 5.58 G Dwyane Wade G Miami Heat 6.42 2.03 4.39

    APD – Adjusted Pace Defense
    A (work-in-progress) weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the defensive side of a basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace and compared against the average at their position played to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

    APD+ – Adjusted Pace Defense above Average Adjusted Pace Defense at Position(s) Played
    Nothing more than a player’s APD value above the average APD value for his position.

    Stats through 4/14/10

    Tuesday, May 18th, 2010 at 19:38
  • 2010 NBA Top 10 Week 21: Dwyane Wade is Elite and is Willing to Prove It

    D-Wade wonders how he can be ranked behind a goofy, 8th grade-looking motherfuckerSorry about the disappearence of Week 20 (and the shortening of Week 19, for that matter)! I’ve suddenly got sucked up into some crazy day-job nuttiness – it’s seriously the crunch time from hell. I will survive, however, and so will NBA-Sim, so take a deep breath.

    The Big Three (and, no, I don’t mean those fossils in Boston) are finally making their presence known around the league. Ok, sure, Chris Paul and LeBron are the elite in this sport, but Wade is finally coming on strong at the end of the season. Will it be enough to knock out Mr. Underrated, David Lee?

    For the past week-and-a-half, Wade has been stellar, with a line of 27.6 PPG / 5.0 RPG / 6.0 APG while shooting 45% from the floor and 73% from the line (ok so he’s been stellar but not all that efficient). He’s also managed to lead his lowly Heat to a 3-2 record in that span including a critical victory against the Bobcats who are biting at his 6th seed heels.

    Biggest Jump: Dwyane Wade, Gerald Wallace (2)
    Biggest Fall: Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony (1)
    Hello: Carlos Boozer
    Goodbye: Steve Nash
    Ineligible: Chris Paul

    NBA Top 10 (by APP+)
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+

    1

    1 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers F 69 ↑ 37.95 ↑ 28.70
    - 2 Chris Paul (Injured) (Ineligible) New Orleans Hornets G 38 ↑ 32.11 ↑ 22.64

    2

    2 David Lee New York Knicks F 69 ↑ 28.36 ↑ 19.11

    3

    5 Dwyane Wade Miami Heat G 66 ↑ 28.48 ↑ 19.01
    4 3 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder G-F 68 ↑ 28.55 ↑ 18.57
    5 4 Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors F-C 61 ↑ 28.66 ↓ 18.02
    6 6 Dwight Howard Orlando Magic C-F 70 ↑ 27.69 ↑ 17.94
    7 8 Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 53 ↑ 26.67 ↑ 17.42
    8 7 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 68 ↑ 26.54 ↑ 17.29
    9 11 Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 64 ↑ 25.75 ↑ 16.50
    10 9 Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies F 69 ↑ 25.42 ↑ 16.17

     

    Just Outside
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+
    11 10 Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 64 ↑ 25.39 ↑ 15.92
    12 12 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs F-C 65 ↑ 26.27 ↑ 15.63
    13 14 Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers G-F 65 ↑ 25.58 ↑ 15.60
    14 13 Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets F 57 ↑ 24.85 ↑ 15.60
    15 - Carlos Boozer Utah Jazz F-C 57 26.11 15.47

     

    Positional Average APP (from 1980-Present)
    Position G G-F F-G F F-C C-F C
    Avg. APP ↑ 9.47 ↑ 9.98 ↑ 10.63 ↑ 9.25 ↑ 10.64 ↑ 9.75 ↑ 8.58
    # of Players ↑ 3946 1040 688 ↑ 3029 1370 706 1425

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.
    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.

    Players are considered ineligible if they fail to play in 60% of their team’s games.

    APP for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 9.79
    APP+ for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 0.40
    Stats through 3/21/2010

    Wednesday, March 24th, 2010 at 16:19
  • 2010 NBA Top 10 Week 19.5: Grizzly Man

    The criminally underrated David LeeRemember when Zach Randolph was the new incarnation of Shareef Abdur-Rahim – the best player on bad teams? Well, the impossible has occurred: one of the bottom 3 franchises in the league merged with the “best-on-a-bad” Randolph and formed … a surprisingly decent 2010 Memphis Grizzlies squad. What the?

    I don’t claim to understand it, either, so I’ll just hit the facts. 20.8 PPG / 10.6 RPG / 0.2 APG, shooting 49.3% from the floor and 85.7% from the free throw line. Ok, so he’s a black hole, but Z-Bo (where does the “Bo” in that nickname come from, anyway?) is still a 20-10 beast and lead his Grizzlies to 4-1 in the 5 games he’s played this month.

    Biggest Jump: Zach Randolph, Deron Williams (3)
    Biggest Fall: Tim Duncan (2)
    Hello: Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash
    Goodbye: Rajon Rondo, Carlos Boozer
    Ineligible: Chris Paul

    NBA Top 10 (by APP+)
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+

    1

    1 LeBron James (Injured) Cleveland Cavaliers F 63 ↓ 34.70 ↓ 25.49
    - 2 Chris Paul (Injured) (Ineligible) New Orleans Hornets G 38 ↑ 29.80 ↓ 20.36

    2

    5 David Lee New York Knicks F 64 ↓ 26.34 ↓ 17.13

    3

    4 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder G-F 63 ↓ 26.66 ↓ 16.70
    4 3 Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors F-C 56 ↓ 27.06 ↓ 16.43
    5 6 Dwyane Wade Miami Heat G 61 ↓ 25.71 ↓ 16.27
    6 7 Dwight Howard Orlando Magic C-F 65 ↓ 25.78 ↓ 16.04
    7 8 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 65 ↓ 24.35 ↓ 15.14
    8 9 Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 48 ↓ 24.16 ↓ 14.95
    9 12 Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies F 64 ↓ 23.70 ↓ 14.49
    10 13 Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 58 ↓ 23.81 ↓ 14.37

     

    Just Outside
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+
    11 11 Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 61 ↓ 23.33 ↓ 14.12
    12 10 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs F-C 59 ↓ 24.73 ↓ 14.10
    13 - Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets F 51 23.27 14.06
    14 - Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers G-F 60 23.95 13.99
    15 - Steve Nash Phoenix Suns G 64 23.34 13.90

     

    Positional Average APP (from 1980-Present)
    Position G G-F F-G F F-C C-F C
    Avg. APP ↓ 9.44 ↓ 9.96 10.62 ↓ 9.21 ↓ 10.63 ↓ 9.74 ↓ 8.56
    # of Players 3943 1040 688 3027 1370 706 1425

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.
    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.

    Players are considered ineligible if they fail to play in 60% of their team’s games.

    APP for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 9.02
    APP+ for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 0.00
    Stats through 3/11/2010

    Friday, March 12th, 2010 at 16:09
  • 2010 NBA Top 10 Week 18: David Lee Is Having A Better Season Than Your Favorite Player

    The criminally underrated David LeeWho do you like? Dwyane Wade? Dwight Howard? Tim Duncan? Carmelo Anthony? KOBE BRYANT?

    Guess what, David Lee is having a better 2010 season than any of those also-rans!

    Ok, so the Knicks aren’t going to be mistaken for a championship contending – or even playoff bound – team anytime soon, but the stats don’t lie: Lee is performing at a higher level than these marquee players this year. I’ve still yet to tie performance to wins (unlike Berri’s Win Shares, for example) and I’m not even sure if it’s a direct correlation, anyway.This is a team sport, afterall, so a ball hog may end up hurting his team even if he’s very good.

    Still, here was the line from Lee’s week: 21.5 PPG / 12.8 RPG / 3.5 APG while shooting 55% from the floor and and 73% from the free throw line. Surely nothing to sneeze at! Yes, the Knicks went 1-3 last week, but, again, there’s still no direct correlation between performance and wins here at NBA Sim.

    Yet.

    Biggest Jump: Dirk Nowitzki (2)
    Biggest Fall: Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan (1)
    Hello: Rajon Rondo, Carlos Boozer
    Goodbye: Carmelo Anthony, Al Horford
    Ineligible: N/A

    NBA Top 10 (by APP+)
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+

    1

    1 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers F 60 ↑ 37.86 ↑ 28.62

    2

    2 Chris Paul (Injured) New Orleans Hornets G 38 ↑ 32.22 ↓ 22.75

    3

    3 Chris Bosh (Injured) Toronto Raptors F-C 53 ↑ 29.86 ↑ 19.22
    4 4 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder G-F 58 ↑ 28.76 ↓ 18.78
    5 5 David Lee New York Knicks F 58 ↑ 27.86 ↑ 18.62
    6 6 Dwyane Wade Miami Heat G 56 ↓ 27.78 ↓ 18.31
    7 7 Dwight Howard Orlando Magic C-F 60 ↑ 27.90 ↑ 18.15
    8 10 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 59 ↑ 26.64 ↓ 17.39
    9 8 Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 43 ↓ 26.47 ↓ 17.23
    10 9 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs F-C 54 ↑ 27.74 ↑ 17.10

     

    Just Outside
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+
    11 11 Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 55 ↑ 26.29 ↑ 17.05
    12 13 Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies F 59 ↑ 25.62 ↑ 16.38
    13 14 Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 53 ↑ 25.29 ↑ 15.82
    14 - Rajon Rondo Boston Celtics G 56 25.27 15.80
    15 - Carlos Boozer Utah Jazz F-C 56 26.32 15.68

     

    Positional Average APP (from 1980-Present)
    Position G G-F F-G F F-C C-F C
    Avg. APP 9.47 9.98 10.62 9.24 10.64 9.75 ↑ 8.58
    # of Players 3943 1040 688 ↑ 3027 1370 706 1425

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.
    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.

    Players are considered ineligible if they fail to play in 60% of their team’s games.

    APP for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 9.71
    APP+ for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 0.32
    Stats through 2/28/2010

    Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 at 17:19
  • 2010 NBA Top 10 Week 17: Battle of the Supermen

    Battle of the SupermenI’m still sticking with the manual calculations to determine this list so these posts are taking me a lot longer. However, I’m confident of their results so here’s the truth for this week:

    Not a lot of movement this week with Dwight Howards 2-spot hop being the most notable. Superman led his Orlando Magic to a 2-1 week putting up a crazy line: 28.0 PPG / 16.3 RPG / 2.0 APG, shooting 58% from the floor and 72% from the line (this coming from a career 57% free throw shooter)! Perhaps the most impressive stat is the win again Eastern Conference rivals, Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday.

    Biggest Jump: Dwight Howard (2)
    Biggest Fall: Dwyane Wade (1)
    Hello: Al Horford
    Goodbye: Steve Nash
    Ineligible: N/A

    NBA Top 10 (by APP+)
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+

    1

    1 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers F 57 ↑ 37.54 ↑ 28.30

    2

    2 Chris Paul (Injured) New Orleans Hornets G 38 ↓ 32.18 ↓ 22.71

    3

    3 Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors F-C 53 ↑ 29.82 ↑ 19.18
    4 4 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder G-F 54 ↓ 28.62 ↓ 18.64
    5 6 David Lee New York Knicks F 54 ↑ 27.78 ↑ 18.54
    6 5 Dwyane Wade (Injured) Miami Heat G 55 ↓ 27.96 ↓ 18.49
    7 9 Dwight Howard Orlando Magic C-F 57 ↑ 27.86 ↑ 18.11
    8 7 Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 39 ↓ 26.70 ↓ 17.46
    9 8 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs F-C 51 ↓ 27.65 ↓ 17.01
    10 10 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 55 ↓ 26.00 ↓ 16.76

     

    Just Outside
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+
    11 11 Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 52 ↓ 25.91 ↓ 16.67
    12 13 Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets F 43 25.20 ↑ 15.96
    13 14 Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies F 55 ↓ 24.98 ↓ 15.74
    14 15 Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 50 ↓ 25.04 ↓ 15.57
    15 - Al Horford Atlanta Hawks C 54 24.10 15.53

     

    Positional Average APP (from 1980-Present)
    Position G G-F F-G F F-C C-F C
    Avg. APP 9.47 ↑ 9.98 ↓ 10.62 ↓ 9.24 10.64 9.75 8.57
    # of Players ↑ 3943 1040 ↑ 688 ↑ 3026 1370 706 1425

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.
    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.

    Players are considered ineligible if they fail to play in 60% of their team’s games.

    APP for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 8.72
    APP+ for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: -0.65
    Stats through 2/21/2010

    Thursday, February 25th, 2010 at 18:03
  • 2010 NBA Top 10 Week 16: Post-All-Star Reboot

    Reboot: Good for LeBronI’m going to keep this short: for some reason, my automatic process that I set up to do all of my Top 10 calculations got gummed up and started pumping out odd results. So, I’ve rebooted and did this one by hand to make sure it was correct. And, what do you know? LeBron jumps back to the top spot … yeah, that sounds about right.

    Biggest Jump: N/A
    Biggest Fall: N/A
    Hello: N/A
    Goodbye: N/A
    Ineligible: N/A

    NBA Top 10 (by APP+)
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+

    1

    - LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers F 54 37.25 28.00

    2

    - Chris Paul (Injured) New Orleans Hornets G 38 32.32 22.85

    3

    - Chris Bosh Toronto Raptors F-C 52 29.59 18.95
    4 - Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder G-F 51 28.77 18.80
    5 - Dwyane Wade (Injured) Miami Heat G 53 28.20 18.73
    6 - David Lee New York Knicks F 51 27.47 18.22
    7 - Pau Gasol Los Angeles Lakers F 37 27.07 17.82
    8 - Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs F-C 48 27.91 17.27
    9 - Dwight Howard Orlando Magic C-F 54 26.90 17.15
    10 - Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks F 51 26.02 16.77

     

    Just Outside
    Rank Prev Player Team(s) Pos. GP APP APP+
    11 - Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats F 49 26.00 16.75
    12 - Steve Nash Phoenix Suns G 53 25.46 15.99
    13 - Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets F 40 25.20 15.95
    14 - Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies F 51 25.14 15.89
    15 - Deron Williams Utah Jazz G 46 25.25 15.78

     

    Positional Average APP (from 1980-Present)
    Position G G-F F-G F F-C C-F C
    Avg. APP 9.47 9.97 10.63 9.25 10.64 9.75 8.57
    # of Players 3942 1040 687 3024 1370 706 1425

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performance.
    APP+ – APP Above Positional Average APP
    Player’s weighted performance minus the performance of an average player at his same position.

    Players are considered ineligible if they fail to play in 60% of their team’s games.

    APP for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 9.32
    APP+ for an average NBA player for the 2010 season: 0.00
    Stats through 2/14/2010

    Monday, February 22nd, 2010 at 13:35
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